PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Bournemouth 1–2 Brentford · Premier League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brentford won 1–2.

Shots
1311
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
0.671.08
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brentford beat Bournemouth 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bournemouth – Brentford): shots 13–11, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 0.67–1.08, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.46 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.46 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots11 shotsBournemouth 13 shots, Brentford 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsBournemouth 4 shots, Brentford 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.67 xG1.08 xGBournemouth 0.67 xG, Brentford 1.08 xG
  • Possession48%52%Bournemouth 48%, Brentford 52%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersBournemouth 3 corners, Brentford 8 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 foulsBournemouth 16 fouls, Brentford 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lewis Cook · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIvan Toney · Brentford · 18′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLloyd Kelly · Bournemouth · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIvan Toney · Brentford · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 20′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIvan Toney · Brentford · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 89′ · 0.09 xG · goalKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 60′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 90′ · 0.11 xG · goalDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 17′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 33′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 62′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 87′ · 0.35 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.65 xG. Brentford: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 89′Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 87′Yoane Wissa · Brentford · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 0.65 xG · Brentford 1.09 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Bournemouth
2Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Bournemouth · Premier League2–2
Brentford — Bournemouth · Premier League2–0
Bournemouth — Brentford · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bournemouth favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Brentford in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bournemouth37 matchesBrentford37 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored37/371.46 goals/match
1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲ 1.65 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals37/37▲ 1.59 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots37/3712.5 shots/match
4.86 shots/match ▲Shots on target37/374.51 shots/match
44.2%Possession37/37● 44.7%
6.22 corners/match ●Corners37/374.89 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls37/3710 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 May 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBournemouthBrentford
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headBournemouth — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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