PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Fulham

LLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordFulham
Shots7 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Expected goals0.63 xG/match1.28 xG/match▲
Possession54%●46%
Corners7 corners/match●6 corners/match
Fouls3 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ivan Toney · Brentford · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAntonee Robinson · Fulham · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdama Traoré · Fulham · 80′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIvan Toney · Brentford · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSaša Lukić · Fulham · 1′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 35′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 13′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 48′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoão Palhinha · Fulham · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAntonee Robinson · Fulham · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Castagne · Fulham · 60′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 8′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 51′ · 0.13 xG · on targetKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 44′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 13′ · 0.24 xG · on targetRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 73′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brentford: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.65 xG. Fulham: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 0.65 xG · Fulham 1.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.42 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brentford
0Draws
1Fulham
Fulham — Brentford · Premier League0–3
Brentford — Fulham · Premier League3–2
Fulham — Brentford · Premier League3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 6 · 4 too close

1.44 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 36/361.42 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 36/36▲1.53 goals/match
1.6 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 36/361.4 xG/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 36/361.64 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 36/36▲13.4 shots/match
14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/36▲13.7 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 36/36▲4.75 shots/match
4.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 36/365.03 shots/match
44.5%Possessionseason · 36/36●50.9%
4.81 corners/matchCornersseason · 36/36●5.75 corners/match
5.97 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/36▲4.92 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.94 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/369.86 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/36▲28%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford37.5
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford41.7
Fulham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford43.3
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford62.5
Fulham32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford12.5
Fulham7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford30
Fulham62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford30.6
Fulham40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford36 matchesFulham36 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored36/361.42 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed36/36▲1.53 goals/match
1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals36/361.4 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots36/36▲13.4 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target36/36▲4.75 shots/match
44.5%Possession36/36●50.9%
4.81 corners/matchCorners36/36●5.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.94 fouls/matchFouls36/369.86 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford18 matchesFulham18 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.11 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.94 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.23 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shots18/1812.7 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲4.83 shots/match
47.1%●Possession18/1846.7%
4.94 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.78 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples36 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 May 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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