Premier League · 2023Sat, 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Sheffield United

DLLLL

1–3Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sheffield United	Nottingham Forest
Shots	17 shots/match▲	15 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.31 xG/match▲	1.45 xG/match
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	5 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Sheffield United: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.35 xG. Nottingham Forest: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sheffield United 2.35 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.46 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sheffield United's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sheffield United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sheffield United's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.61 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.6 shots/match	9.61 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sheffield United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.61 shots/match▲ShotsSheffield United · Nottingham Forest11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Sheffield United	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Shots	9.61 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	17.9 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sheffield United.

7 days▲Rest daysSheffield United · Nottingham Forest5.94 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Sheffield United	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Rest days	7 days	5.94 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Sheffield United

2Draws

2Nottingham Forest

18 Aug 2023Nottingham Forest — Sheffield United · Premier League2–1

17 May 2022Nottingham Forest — Sheffield United · Championship1–2

14 May 2022Sheffield United — Nottingham Forest · Championship1–2

4 Mar 2022Sheffield United — Nottingham Forest · Championship1–1

2 Nov 2021Nottingham Forest — Sheffield United · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Sheffield United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 11 · 2 too close

0.97 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 36/36▲1.25 goals/match

2.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 36/36▲1.75 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 36/36▲1.31 xG/match

2 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 36/36▲1.42 xG/match

9.61 shots/matchShotsseason · 36/36▲11.6 shots/match

17.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/36▲13.3 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/36▲3.83 shots/match

7.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/36▲4.53 shots/match

35.5%Possessionseason · 36/36●40.9%

3.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 36/36●3.89 corners/match

7.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/36▲6.53 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3611.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

3%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/36▲11%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 36/36▲72%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sheffield United2.5

Nottingham Forest12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sheffield United2.5

Nottingham Forest19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sheffield United2.5

Nottingham Forest50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sheffield United37.5

Nottingham Forest67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sheffield United47.5

Nottingham Forest62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sheffield United2.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sheffield United13.8

Nottingham Forest27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Sheffield United36 matchesNottingham Forest36 matches

0.97 goals/matchGoals scored36/36▲1.25 goals/match

2.78 goals/matchGoals allowed36/36▲1.75 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goals36/36▲1.31 xG/match

9.61 shots/matchShots36/36▲11.6 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on target35/36▲3.83 shots/match

35.5%Possession36/36●40.9%

3.69 corners/matchCorners36/36●3.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls36/3611.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Sheffield United18 matchesNottingham Forest18 matches

1.06 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.11 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲2 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals18/181.3 xG/match

11.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.3 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.72 shots/match

37.3%Possession18/18●39.9%

4.22 corners/match●Corners18/183.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples36 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 May 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4