Premier League · 2023Sun, 28 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

Nottingham Forest

DWLDL

0–2Historical match

Manchester City

DWWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Manchester City
Shots	14 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.93 xG/match▲	0.87 xG/match
Possession	33%	67%●
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	8 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.92 xG. Manchester City: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.92 xG · Manchester City 0.86 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.41 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.8 goals/match	2.41 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City.

7.12 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Manchester City2.85 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Manchester City	Baseline
Rest days	7.12 days	2.85 days	—
Matches last 14 days	1 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Manchester City18.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	11.5 shots/match	18.3 shots/match	13.8 shots/match
Shots against	13.1 shots/match	8.18 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

1Draws

2Manchester City

23 Sept 2023Manchester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

18 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

31 Aug 2022Manchester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League6–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 11 · 2 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/34▲2.41 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/34▲0.94 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/34▲2.07 xG/match

1.39 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/34▲0.98 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/34▲18.3 shots/match

13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/34▲8.18 shots/match

3.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/33▲7.15 shots/match

4.51 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/33▲3.03 shots/match

40.7%Possessionseason · 35/34●66.1%

3.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/34●7.59 corners/match

6.57 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/34▲3.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/347.79 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/34▲32%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/34▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Manchester City94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest50.8

Manchester City94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest62.5

Manchester City52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest67.5

Manchester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Manchester City72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest35 matchesManchester City34 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored35/34▲2.41 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed35/34▲0.94 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals35/34▲2.07 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots35/34▲18.3 shots/match

3.83 shots/matchShots on target35/33▲7.15 shots/match

40.7%Possession35/34●66.1%

3.91 corners/matchCorners35/34●7.59 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls35/347.79 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest18 matchesManchester City17 matches

1.39 goals/matchGoals scored18/17▲2.29 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed18/17▲1.06 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals18/17▲2.05 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots18/17▲17.8 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on target18/17▲7.94 shots/match

41.8%Possession18/17●64.6%

4.28 corners/matchCorners18/17●7.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/177.24 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.85 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4