PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 4 May 2024, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WLWWW
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalBournemouth
Shots25 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals3.38 xG/match▲0.46 xG/match
Possession55%●45%
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 56′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Saliba · Arsenal · 18′ · 0.06 xG · on targetThomas Partey · Arsenal · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.08 xG · on targetBen White · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 52′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 10′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 18′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.11 xG · goalMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 7′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 70′ · 0.12 xG · goalGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedTakehiro Tomiyasu · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 38′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 53′ · 0.23 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 49′ · 0.25 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 77′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 25 shots, 9 on target, 3.38 xG. Bournemouth: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 45′Leandro Trossard · Arsenal · 70′Declan Rice · Arsenal · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 3.38 xG · Bournemouth 0.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Arsenal's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.94 corners/match●CornersArsenal · Bournemouth6.31 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBournemouthBaseline
Corners6.94 corners/match6.31 corners/match5.27 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Arsenal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

20.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season17.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots20.6 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.2 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Bournemouth14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBournemouthBaseline
Shots17.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against8.44 shots/match14.1 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Arsenal
0Draws
0Bournemouth
Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League0–4
Arsenal — Bournemouth · Premier League3–2
Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 0 · 2 too close

2.44 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 36/361.44 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 36/361.75 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 36/361.5 xG/match
0.76 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 36/361.57 xG/match
17.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 36/3614.1 shots/match
8.44 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 36/3614.1 shots/match
6.06 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 36/364.89 shots/match
2.31 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 36/365.19 shots/match
58.5%●Possessionseason · 36/3644.1%
6.94 corners/match●Cornersseason · 36/366.31 corners/match
3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 36/365.56 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3613.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3625%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal72.5
Bournemouth32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal90.8
Bournemouth51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal95.8
Bournemouth35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal82.5
Bournemouth87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal27.5
Bournemouth97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5
Bournemouth82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal72.5
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal36 matchesBournemouth36 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored36/361.44 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed36/361.75 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals36/361.5 xG/match
17.2 shots/match▲Shots36/3614.1 shots/match
6.06 shots/match▲Shots on target36/364.89 shots/match
58.5%●Possession36/3644.1%
6.94 corners/match●Corners36/366.31 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls36/3613.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal18 matchesBournemouth18 matches
2.56 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.44 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/182.06 goals/match
2.3 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.48 xG/match
18.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.6 shots/match
6.83 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.56 shots/match
58.4%●Possession18/1843.1%
7.28 corners/match●Corners18/185.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples36 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 May 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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