Premier League · 2023Sat, 11 May 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LDLLW

2–3Full-time recap

Chelsea

WLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea
Shots	20 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.55 xG/match	1.62 xG/match▲
Possession	32%	68%●
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	14 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 20 shots, 4 on target, 1.66 xG. Chelsea: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.63 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.66 xG · Chelsea 1.63 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	11.9 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.6%PossessionNottingham Forest · Chelsea●59.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	Baseline
Possession	40.6%	59.2%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea.

7.1 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Chelsea6.15 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	7.1 days	6.15 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

2Draws

0Chelsea

2 Sept 2023Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–1

13 May 2023Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2

1 Jan 2023Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 2 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/36▲2.03 goals/match

1.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/36▲1.69 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/36▲2.02 xG/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 37/361.54 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/36▲14.4 shots/match

13.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 37/3614.5 shots/match

3.84 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/36▲5.64 shots/match

4.54 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 37/365.03 shots/match

40.6%Possessionseason · 37/36●59.2%

3.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/36●5.28 corners/match

6.51 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/36▲5.03 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3611.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/36▲22%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/36▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Chelsea77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest20.8

Chelsea74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest52.5

Chelsea39.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest77.5

Chelsea12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest62.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Chelsea47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest28.8

Chelsea66.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest37 matchesChelsea36 matches

1.27 goals/matchGoals scored37/36▲2.03 goals/match

1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed37/36▲1.69 goals/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals37/36▲2.02 xG/match

11.9 shots/matchShots37/36▲14.4 shots/match

3.84 shots/matchShots on target37/36▲5.64 shots/match

40.6%Possession37/36●59.2%

3.92 corners/matchCorners37/36●5.28 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls37/3611.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest19 matchesChelsea18 matches

1.42 goals/matchGoals scored19/18▲1.72 goals/match

1.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/182 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals19/18▲1.61 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots19/1812.3 shots/match

3.95 shots/matchShots on target19/18▲4.72 shots/match

41.3%Possession19/18●60.3%

4.32 corners/matchCorners19/18●4.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls19/1812.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples37 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 May 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4