PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Brighton & Hove Albion 2–2 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Brighton & Hove Albion and Nottingham Forest drew 2–2.

Shots
144
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
11.42
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

Brighton & Hove Albion and Nottingham Forest drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Brighton & Hove Albion – Nottingham Forest): shots 14–4, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1–1.42, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.6% ●PossessionBrighton & Hove Albion · Nottingham Forest40.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession62.6%40.2%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsBrighton & Hove Albion · Nottingham Forest12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against8.2 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots4 shotsBrighton & Hove Albion 14 shots, Nottingham Forest 4 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsBrighton & Hove Albion 3 shots, Nottingham Forest 3 shots
  • Expected goals1 xG1.42 xGBrighton & Hove Albion 1 xG, Nottingham Forest 1.42 xG
  • Possession70%30%Brighton & Hove Albion 70%, Nottingham Forest 30%
  • Corners9 corners1 cornerBrighton & Hove Albion 9 corners, Nottingham Forest 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls11 foulsBrighton & Hove Albion 12 fouls, Nottingham Forest 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Evan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPervis Estupiñán · Brighton & Hove Albion · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Brighton & Hove Albion · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.05 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 27′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 56′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 63′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJack Hinshelwood · Brighton & Hove Albion · 42′ · 0.12 xG · goalGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 30′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 54′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 50′ · 0.24 xG · on targetRamón Sosa · Nottingham Forest · 70′ · 0.44 xG · goalChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 13′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.02 xG. Nottingham Forest: 4 shots, 3 on target, 1.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton & Hove Albion · 42′Danny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′Chris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 13′Ramón Sosa · Nottingham Forest · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.02 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.43 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Brighton & Hove Albion
1Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0
Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–3
Nottingham Forest — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion5 matchesNottingham Forest5 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
1.59 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.33 xG/match
16.2 shots/match ▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 5.4 shots/match
62.6% ●Possession5/540.2%
6.8 corners/match ●Corners5/54.4 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Sept 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headBrighton & Hove Albion — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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