Premier League · 2024Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DWDWD

0–1Full-time recap

Fulham

LWDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Fulham
Shots	11 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	2 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.8 xG/match	1.33 xG/match▲
Possession	41%	59%●
Corners	6 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 11 shots, 1 on target, 0.79 xG. Fulham: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.79 xG · Fulham 1.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Fulham have a visible away split

weak

Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	15.7 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fulham have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.3%PossessionNottingham Forest · Fulham●50.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Fulham	Baseline
Possession	40.3%	50.5%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Nottingham Forest

0Draws

3Fulham

2 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest — Fulham · Premier League3–1

6 Dec 2023Fulham — Nottingham Forest · Premier League5–0

11 Feb 2023Fulham — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

16 Sept 2022Nottingham Forest — Fulham · Premier League2–3

26 Apr 2022Fulham — Nottingham Forest · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 5 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.33 goals/match

0.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/60.83 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.39 xG/match

0.9 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/61.1 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲15.7 shots/match

11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/612.2 shots/match

4.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲5 shots/match

3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/63.67 shots/match

40.3%Possessionseason · 6/6●50.5%

4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/6●5.83 corners/match

5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.67 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/614.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Fulham52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest39.2

Fulham65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest83.3

Fulham70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest77.5

Fulham87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest62.5

Fulham82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest37.5

Fulham62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest47.5

Fulham71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest6 matchesFulham6 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.33 goals/match

0.83 goals/matchGoals allowed6/60.83 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.39 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲15.7 shots/match

4.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲5 shots/match

40.3%Possession6/6●50.5%

4.67 corners/matchCorners6/6●5.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls6/614.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest3 matchesFulham3 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/30.67 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match

1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.91 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shots3/311 shots/match

4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match

48.7%Possession3/3●51.7%

5 corners/matchCorners3/3●6.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls3/313.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4