PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Chelsea 4–2 Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League

Chelsea

LWDWW
4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Chelsea won 4–2.

Shots
1515
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
4.161.11
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chelsea beat Brighton & Hove Albion 4–2. Recorded in this match (Chelsea – Brighton & Hove Albion): shots 15–15, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 4.16–1.11, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.5 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsChelsea · Brighton & Hove Albion16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match16 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match9.33 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots15 shotsChelsea 15 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 15 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsChelsea 7 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 5 shots
  • Expected goals4.16 xG1.11 xGChelsea 4.16 xG, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.11 xG
  • Possession41%59%Chelsea 41%, Brighton & Hove Albion 59%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersChelsea 8 corners, Brighton & Hove Albion 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls8 foulsChelsea 11 fouls, Brighton & Hove Albion 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton & Hove Albion · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKaoru Mitoma · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYasin Ayari · Brighton & Hove Albion · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 31′ · 0.05 xG · goalCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 34′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJadon Sancho · Chelsea · 4′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGeorginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 7′ · 0.09 xG · goalYankuba Minteh · Brighton & Hove Albion · 74′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 36′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 67′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 41′ · 0.19 xG · goalCole Palmer · Chelsea · 21′ · 0.21 xG · goalNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 38′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 34′ · 0.25 xG · goalDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 44′ · 0.25 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 56′ · 0.52 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 19′ · 0.63 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 28′ · 0.82 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 49′ · 0.87 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 15 shots, 7 on target, 4.16 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 21′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 28′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 31′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 41′Georginio Rutter · Brighton & Hove Albion · 7′Carlos Baleba · Brighton & Hove Albion · 34′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 4.16 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.11 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Chelsea
1Draws
2Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League1–2
Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–2
Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–2
Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League4–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chelsea favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chelsea6 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion6 matches
2.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61.67 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
2.03 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.51 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 16 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/64.67 shots/match
54.3%Possession6/6● 62%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/6● 6 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/69.67 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChelseaBrighton & Hove Albion
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headChelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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