Premier League · 2024Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LWDWW

4–2Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

WWDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	15 shots/match	15 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	4.16 xG/match▲	1.11 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%●
Corners	8 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 15 shots, 7 on target, 4.16 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 4.16 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3 goals/match	2.5 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Brighton & Hove Albion16 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Shots	12.3 shots/match	16 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	13.5 shots/match	9.33 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Chelsea

1Draws

2Brighton & Hove Albion

15 May 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League1–2

3 Dec 2023Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League3–2

15 Apr 2023Chelsea — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–2

29 Oct 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League4–1

18 Jan 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 4 · 4 too close

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.67 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.33 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.51 xG/match

1.17 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/61.66 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲16 shots/match

13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.33 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/64.67 shots/match

5.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3.83 shots/match

54.3%Possessionseason · 6/6●62%

4.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/6●6 corners/match

4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3.17 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/69.67 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/633%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea67.5

Brighton & Hove Albion87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea69.2

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea49.2

Brighton & Hove Albion65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea27.5

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea17.5

Brighton & Hove Albion12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea42.5

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea42.5

Brighton & Hove Albion53.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea6 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion6 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.67 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.51 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots6/6▲16 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.67 shots/match

54.3%Possession6/6●62%

4.83 corners/matchCorners6/6●6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/69.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea3 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion3 matches

1.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/31.67 goals/match

2.51 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.43 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShots3/3▲15.7 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34.67 shots/match

50.7%Possession3/3●61.7%

5.33 corners/match●Corners3/34.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/37.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4