PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 22 Sept 2024, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityArsenal
Shots33 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.18 xG/match▲0.67 xG/match
Possession77%●23%
Corners8 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Savinho · Manchester City · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedManuel Akanji · Manchester City · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Calafiori · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.02 xG · goalKyle Walker · Manchester City · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedManuel Akanji · Manchester City · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKyle Walker · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRúben Dias · Manchester City · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKyle Walker · Manchester City · 57′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRúben Dias · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRúben Dias · Manchester City · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 87′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRúben Dias · Manchester City · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRúben Dias · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedİlkay Gündoğan · Manchester City · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKyle Walker · Manchester City · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 62′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 77′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 48′ · 0.10 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 59′ · 0.10 xG · on targetBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 59′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJohn Stones · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.17 xG · goalİlkay Gündoğan · Manchester City · 7′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 38′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.33 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 9′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 33 shots, 11 on target, 2.17 xG. Arsenal: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 9′John Stones · Manchester City · 90′Riccardo Calafiori · Arsenal · 22′Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.17 xG · Arsenal 0.68 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.8 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Arsenal10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityArsenalBaseline
Shots19.8 shots/match10 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against6.8 shots/match18 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal have a visible away split

weak

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7 shots/match10 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

65.2%●PossessionManchester City · Arsenal41.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityArsenalBaseline
Possession65.2%41.8%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester City
1Draws
1Arsenal
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League0–0
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–0
Manchester City — Arsenal · Premier League4–1
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–3
Arsenal — Manchester City · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 2 · 3 too close

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/51.6 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲0.6 goals/match
2.29 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/51.13 xG/match
0.73 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/51.28 xG/match
19.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/510 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/518 shots/match
7.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/54.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 5/55.2 shots/match
65.2%●Possessionseason · 5/541.8%
8.8 corners/match●Cornersseason · 5/54 corners/match
2.6 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/55.6 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
6.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/513 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/5▲60%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/5100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5
Arsenal17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City97.5
Arsenal45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City87.5
Arsenal46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City77.5
Arsenal32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5
Arsenal72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City92.5
Arsenal27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City72.5
Arsenal41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City5 matchesArsenal5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
2.29 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.13 xG/match
19.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
65.2%●Possession5/541.8%
8.8 corners/match●Corners5/54 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
6.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City3 matchesArsenal3 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match
2.56 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.76 xG/match
21.7 shots/match▲Shots3/37 shots/match
7.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match
68.7%●Possession3/340%
10 corners/match●Corners3/33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
6.67 fouls/matchFouls3/312 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.06 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Sept 2024, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this