PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Mon, 30 Sept 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthSouthampton
Shots14 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.37 xG/match▲0.6 xG/match
Possession40%60%●
Corners6 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ryan Christie · Bournemouth · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTyler Dibling · Southampton · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoe Aribo · Southampton · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Fraser · Southampton · 8′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBen Brereton Díaz · Southampton · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 27′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 50′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 39′ · 0.06 xG · goalRoss Stewart · Southampton · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdam Lallana · Southampton · 75′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 65′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLuis Sinisterra · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLewis Cook · Bournemouth · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 68′ · 0.13 xG · on targetTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 51′ · 0.14 xG · goalMaxwel Cornet · Southampton · 4′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 17′ · 0.25 xG · goalDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 32′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.36 xG. Southampton: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Evanilson · Bournemouth · 17′Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 32′Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 39′Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 51′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.36 xG · Southampton 0.60 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Southampton's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Southampton have a visible away split

weak

Southampton's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Southampton11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthSouthamptonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match15.5 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

weak

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.5 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth
0Draws
1Southampton
Southampton — Bournemouth · Premier League0–1
Bournemouth — Southampton · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Southampton in 1 · 3 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62 goals/match
1.68 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.28 xG/match
1.4 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/61.87 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/611.3 shots/match
14 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/615.5 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.5 shots/match
6.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲6.33 shots/match
42.2%Possessionseason · 6/6●60.7%
6.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 6/65 corners/match
4.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/66.33 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/612.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/650%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth22.5
Southampton82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth72.5
Southampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth30
Southampton19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth97.5
Southampton2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5
Southampton70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth80
Southampton42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth83.1
Southampton40.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth6 matchesSouthampton6 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.28 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots6/611.3 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.5 shots/match
42.2%Possession6/6●60.7%
6.5 corners/match●Corners6/65 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.3 fouls/matchFouls6/612.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth3 matchesSouthampton3 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
1.8 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.31 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots3/315.3 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34.33 shots/match
37.3%Possession3/3●67%
6.67 corners/matchCorners3/3●8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
18.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.21 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 30 Sept 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthSouthampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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