PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Arsenal 3–1 Southampton · Premier League

Arsenal

WDWDW
3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 3–1.

Shots
298
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
2.830.65
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Southampton 3–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Southampton): shots 29–8, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 2.83–0.65, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal have a visible home split

weak

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

23.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots23.3 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.57 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Southampton10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalSouthamptonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots29 shots8 shotsArsenal 29 shots, Southampton 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsArsenal 6 shots, Southampton 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.83 xG0.65 xGArsenal 2.83 xG, Southampton 0.65 xG
  • Possession59%41%Arsenal 59%, Southampton 41%
  • Corners13 corners1 cornerArsenal 13 corners, Southampton 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls9 foulsArsenal 10 fouls, Southampton 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTyler Dibling · Southampton · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTyler Dibling · Southampton · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoe Aribo · Southampton · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJorginho · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlynn Downes · Southampton · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCameron Archer · Southampton · 55′ · 0.06 xG · goalThomas Partey · Arsenal · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 88′ · 0.06 xG · goalDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 31′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 12′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Arsenal · 7′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.12 xG · goalGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 5′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMateus Fernandes · Southampton · 49′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 4′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedTakehiro Tomiyasu · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on targetTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 79′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 68′ · 0.39 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 29 shots, 6 on target, 2.88 xG. Southampton: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 58′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 68′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 88′Cameron Archer · Southampton · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 2.88 xG · Southampton 0.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Arsenal
2Draws
1Southampton
Arsenal — Southampton · Premier League3–3
Southampton — Arsenal · Premier League1–1
Southampton — Arsenal · Premier League1–0
Arsenal — Southampton · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Southampton in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal7 matchesSouthampton7 matches
2.14 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.57 goals/match
0.86 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
1.87 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.19 xG/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots7/710.9 shots/match
6.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
49%Possession7/7● 57.9%
7.14 corners/match ●Corners7/74.43 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalSouthampton
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headArsenal — Southampton
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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