PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WDWDW
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalSouthampton
Shots29 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.83 xG/match▲0.65 xG/match
Possession59%●41%
Corners13 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kyle Walker-Peters · Southampton · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTyler Dibling · Southampton · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTyler Dibling · Southampton · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoe Aribo · Southampton · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJorginho · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlynn Downes · Southampton · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCameron Archer · Southampton · 55′ · 0.06 xG · goalThomas Partey · Arsenal · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 88′ · 0.06 xG · goalDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 31′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 12′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Arsenal · 7′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.12 xG · goalGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 5′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMateus Fernandes · Southampton · 49′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 4′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedTakehiro Tomiyasu · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on targetTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 79′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 68′ · 0.39 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 29 shots, 6 on target, 2.88 xG. Southampton: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 58′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 68′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 88′Cameron Archer · Southampton · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 2.88 xG · Southampton 0.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Arsenal have a visible home split

weak

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

23.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots23.3 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.57 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Southampton10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalSouthamptonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Arsenal
2Draws
1Southampton
Arsenal — Southampton · Premier League3–3
Southampton — Arsenal · Premier League1–1
Southampton — Arsenal · Premier League1–0
Arsenal — Southampton · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Southampton in 0 · 2 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.57 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.14 goals/match
1.87 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.19 xG/match
1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/72.01 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.9 shots/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/717.4 shots/match
6.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73.29 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/76.29 shots/match
49%Possessionseason · 7/7●57.9%
7.14 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/74.43 corners/match
4.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/77.29 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal52.5
Southampton77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal85.8
Southampton11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal54.2
Southampton13.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal87.5
Southampton2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal52.5
Southampton47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5
Southampton27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal77.5
Southampton26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal7 matchesSouthampton7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.57 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.19 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots7/710.9 shots/match
6.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
49%Possession7/7●57.9%
7.14 corners/match●Corners7/74.43 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal4 matchesSouthampton4 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.5 goals/match
2.7 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.15 xG/match
23.3 shots/match▲Shots4/413.5 shots/match
8.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.75 shots/match
55.8%Possession4/4●60.5%
10.3 corners/match●Corners4/46.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalSouthampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Arsenal vs Southampton — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath