Premier League · 2024Sun, 29 Sept 2024, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Ipswich Town

LLDDD

2–2Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Ipswich Town	Aston Villa
Shots	15 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.18 xG/match▲	0.82 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	10 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Ipswich Town: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.19 xG. Aston Villa: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 1.19 xG · Aston Villa 0.84 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Ipswich Town show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Ipswich Town's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.83 shots/match▲ShotsIpswich Town · Aston Villa11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Ipswich Town	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	8.83 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	13.3 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Ipswich Town have a visible home split

weak

Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season8.83 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	8.83 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

weak

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.83 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 10 · 2 too close

0.83 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲2 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.5 goals/match

0.74 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.59 xG/match

1.99 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.06 xG/match

8.83 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲11.5 shots/match

13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲10.5 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.33 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3.5 shots/match

38.8%Possessionseason · 6/6●51.8%

5.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 6/63.83 corners/match

6.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/612.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town7.5

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town9.2

Aston Villa51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town46.7

Aston Villa66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town32.5

Aston Villa17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town82.5

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town57.5

Aston Villa17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town38.8

Aston Villa38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town6 matchesAston Villa6 matches

0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲2 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.5 goals/match

0.74 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.59 xG/match

8.83 shots/matchShots6/6▲11.5 shots/match

3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.33 shots/match

38.8%Possession6/6●51.8%

5.5 corners/match●Corners6/63.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls6/612.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town3 matchesAston Villa3 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1.33 goals/match

0.69 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.47 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots3/310.7 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/33.67 shots/match

43.7%Possession3/3●48.7%

6.67 corners/match●Corners3/32.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/315.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Sept 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4