PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeicester CityBournemouth
Shots6 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Expected goals0.79 xG/match2.16 xG/match▲
Possession44%56%●
Corners0 corners/match9 corners/match●
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jamie Vardy · Leicester City · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 29′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 8′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEvanilson · Bournemouth · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAbdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester City · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuis Sinisterra · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 17′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 52′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMarcos Senesi · Bournemouth · 6′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 27′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIlya Zabarnyi · Bournemouth · 49′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 32′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 16′ · 0.22 xG · goalDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 53′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedEnes Ünal · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Leicester City · 35′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 72′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Leicester City: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.75 xG. Bournemouth: 19 shots, 2 on target, 2.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 16′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Leicester City 0.75 xG · Bournemouth 2.14 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.29 shots/match▲ShotsLeicester City · Bournemouth16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLeicester CityBournemouthBaseline
Shots8.29 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against19.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leicester City
0Draws
2Bournemouth
Leicester City — Bournemouth · Premier League0–1
Bournemouth — Leicester City · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Leicester City favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 8 · 2 too close

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.14 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.43 goals/match
0.73 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.75 xG/match
2.13 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.32 xG/match
8.29 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲16.7 shots/match
19.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲12.9 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5.14 shots/match
6.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲6 shots/match
42.1%Possessionseason · 7/7●44.1%
2.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●6.86 corners/match
8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲4.14 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/714.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leicester City17.5
Bournemouth22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leicester City18.3
Bournemouth63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leicester City14.2
Bournemouth41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leicester City7.5
Bournemouth97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leicester City37.5
Bournemouth87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leicester City2.5
Bournemouth77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leicester City12.5
Bournemouth80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Leicester City7 matchesBournemouth7 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.43 goals/match
0.73 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.75 xG/match
8.29 shots/matchShots7/7▲16.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.14 shots/match
42.1%Possession7/7●44.1%
2.29 corners/matchCorners7/7●6.86 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/714.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Leicester City4 matchesBournemouth4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored4/41 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.75 goals/match
0.74 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.71 xG/match
8.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲17 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲4.75 shots/match
47.8%Possession4/4●49.3%
2.25 corners/matchCorners4/4●7 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls4/411.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeicester CityBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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