Premier League · 2024Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWDWD

4–2Full-time recap

Leicester City

DLLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Leicester City
Shots	35 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	16 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	4.6 xG/match▲	0.32 xG/match
Possession	75%●	25%
Corners	17 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Arsenal have a visible home split

weak

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

21.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	21.3 shots/match	14.2 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Leicester City8.67 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Leicester City	Baseline
Shots	14.2 shots/match	8.67 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	15.8 shots/match	19.2 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Arsenal

0Draws

0Leicester City

25 Feb 2023Leicester City — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

13 Aug 2022Arsenal — Leicester City · Premier League4–2

13 Mar 2022Arsenal — Leicester City · Premier League2–0

30 Oct 2021Leicester City — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 0 · 3 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.33 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62 goals/match

1.71 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/60.72 xG/match

1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/62.13 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/68.67 shots/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/619.2 shots/match

6.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.17 shots/match

4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/67.17 shots/match

47.3%●Possessionseason · 6/641.8%

6.17 corners/match●Cornersseason · 6/62.67 corners/match

4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/67.83 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal47.5

Leicester City17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal76.7

Leicester City24.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal49.2

Leicester City7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal72.5

Leicester City12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal67.5

Leicester City42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal72.5

Leicester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal71.9

Leicester City15.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal6 matchesLeicester City6 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match

1.71 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.72 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots6/68.67 shots/match

6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.17 shots/match

47.3%●Possession6/641.8%

6.17 corners/match●Corners6/62.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls6/611.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal3 matchesLeicester City3 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.67 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match

2.66 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.72 xG/match

21.3 shots/match▲Shots3/38 shots/match

9.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match

54.7%●Possession3/334.7%

9.33 corners/match●Corners3/32.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Sept 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4