Premier League · 2024Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

LWWWD

0–0Full-time recap

Manchester United

LLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester United
Shots	11 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	1 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.5 xG/match	0.56 xG/match▲
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	6 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 11 shots, 1 on target, 0.50 xG. Manchester United: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 0.50 xG · Manchester United 0.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.71 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Manchester United12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester United	Baseline
Shots	11.4 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.9 shots/match
Shots against	10.4 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

1Draws

3Manchester United

11 Feb 2024Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League1–2

26 Dec 2023Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League3–2

30 Apr 2023Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

6 Nov 2022Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League3–1

15 Jan 2022Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 5 · 3 too close

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.71 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.14 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.59 xG/match

0.99 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/71.65 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲12.7 shots/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/712.1 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.86 shots/match

3.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.14 shots/match

52.1%Possessionseason · 7/7●52.6%

4.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●6 corners/match

3.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/73.86 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲57%

71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa62.5

Manchester United67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa40

Manchester United35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa70.8

Manchester United66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa12.5

Manchester United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa75

Manchester United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa17.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa37.5

Manchester United56.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa7 matchesManchester United7 matches

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.14 goals/match

1.43 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.59 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.7 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.86 shots/match

52.1%Possession7/7●52.6%

4.14 corners/matchCorners7/7●6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa4 matchesManchester United4 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.5 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.59 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots4/4▲14 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6 shots/match

54.8%Possession4/4●55.3%

5.5 corners/matchCorners4/4●6.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4