Premier League · 2024Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WDWWW

1–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WDWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest
Shots	22 shots/match▲	16 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match	9 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.46 xG/match▲	0.87 xG/match
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	11 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 22 shots, 8 on target, 2.50 xG. Nottingham Forest: 16 shots, 9 on target, 0.90 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.50 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.90 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.4 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

56%●PossessionChelsea · Nottingham Forest39.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	56%	39.4%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Chelsea

2Draws

1Nottingham Forest

11 May 2024Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League2–3

2 Sept 2023Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–1

13 May 2023Chelsea — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–2

1 Jan 2023Nottingham Forest — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 6 too close

2.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.86 goals/match

2.09 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.19 xG/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/71.12 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/712.7 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/713.3 shots/match

5.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/75.29 shots/match

5.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.71 shots/match

56%●Possessionseason · 7/739.4%

5.71 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/74.43 corners/match

4.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76.43 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea72.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea75.8

Nottingham Forest45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea47.5

Nottingham Forest73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea42.5

Nottingham Forest82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea25

Nottingham Forest57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea60

Nottingham Forest30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea55

Nottingham Forest50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea7 matchesNottingham Forest7 matches

2.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.86 goals/match

2.09 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.19 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shots7/712.7 shots/match

5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/75.29 shots/match

56%●Possession7/739.4%

5.71 corners/match●Corners7/74.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea4 matchesNottingham Forest4 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match

2.5 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.3 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots4/412 shots/match

6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/45.75 shots/match

54.5%●Possession4/432.5%

6.75 corners/match●Corners4/44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4