Premier League · 2024Mon, 21 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DWDLD

1–0Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

DDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Crystal Palace
Shots	20 shots/match	20 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.76 xG/match▲	0.97 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.74 xG. Crystal Palace: 20 shots, 7 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.74 xG · Crystal Palace 1.00 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Crystal Palace have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.8%PossessionNottingham Forest · Crystal Palace●48.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Possession	40.8%	48.9%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

3Draws

0Crystal Palace

30 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1

7 Oct 2023Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

28 May 2023Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

12 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 1 · 4 too close

1 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.63 goals/match

0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.38 goals/match

1.26 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.15 xG/match

1.1 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.54 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/814 shots/match

14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/813.5 shots/match

5.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/84.5 shots/match

4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.63 shots/match

40.8%Possessionseason · 8/8●48.9%

4.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/8●5 corners/match

6.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲5.38 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/810.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Crystal Palace42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest47.5

Crystal Palace31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest68.3

Crystal Palace46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest92.5

Crystal Palace57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest50

Crystal Palace17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest27.5

Crystal Palace35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest48.8

Crystal Palace36.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest8 matchesCrystal Palace8 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match

0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.38 goals/match

1.26 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.15 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots8/814 shots/match

5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.5 shots/match

40.8%Possession8/8●48.9%

4.63 corners/matchCorners8/8●5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls8/810.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest4 matchesCrystal Palace4 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/40.75 goals/match

0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match

1.23 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.91 xG/match

15.3 shots/matchShots4/415 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target4/45.25 shots/match

49%Possession4/4●50.3%

5.25 corners/matchCorners4/4●6.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116.3 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 21 Oct 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4