Premier League · 2024Fri, 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Leicester City

DDLWW

1–3Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Leicester City	Nottingham Forest
Shots	11 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.76 xG/match	1.73 xG/match▲
Possession	64%●	36%
Corners	6 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	16 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Leicester City: 11 shots, 1 on target, 0.74 xG. Nottingham Forest: 20 shots, 5 on target, 1.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Leicester City 0.74 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest.

6.21 days▲Rest daysLeicester City · Nottingham Forest4 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Leicester City	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Rest days	6.21 days	4 days	—
Matches last 14 days	1 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.67 shots/match▲ShotsLeicester City · Nottingham Forest14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Leicester City	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Shots	9.67 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	14 shots/match
Shots against	18.7 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Leicester City

0Draws

1Nottingham Forest

14 Jan 2023Nottingham Forest — Leicester City · Premier League2–0

3 Oct 2022Leicester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Leicester City favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 9 · 2 too close

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.22 goals/match

1.89 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.78 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.31 xG/match

2.09 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.06 xG/match

9.67 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲14.3 shots/match

18.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲13.8 shots/match

2.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲5.33 shots/match

6.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲3.78 shots/match

46.3%●Possessionseason · 9/940.2%

3.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/9●4.89 corners/match

8.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲6.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲33%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/989%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leicester City37.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leicester City24.2

Nottingham Forest52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leicester City12.5

Nottingham Forest72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leicester City7.5

Nottingham Forest92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leicester City62.5

Nottingham Forest42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leicester City2.5

Nottingham Forest27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leicester City20

Nottingham Forest48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Leicester City9 matchesNottingham Forest9 matches

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match

1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.31 xG/match

9.67 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.3 shots/match

2.89 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.33 shots/match

46.3%●Possession9/940.2%

3.11 corners/matchCorners9/9●4.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Leicester City5 matchesNottingham Forest5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

0.74 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.38 xG/match

9 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match

2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match

51%●Possession5/533.2%

3 corners/matchCorners5/5●4.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples9 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 25 Oct 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4