Premier League · 2024Sat, 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WDDWW

1–0Full-time recap

Southampton

LDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Southampton
Shots	22 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.95 xG/match▲	0.21 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	12 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 22 shots, 8 on target, 2.98 xG. Southampton: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.98 xG · Southampton 0.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.67 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.9 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Southampton10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Southampton	Baseline
Shots	19.9 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	14 shots/match
Shots against	7.11 shots/match	18 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

64.6%●PossessionManchester City · Southampton54.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Southampton	Baseline
Possession	64.6%	54.4%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester City

2Draws

0Southampton

8 Apr 2023Southampton — Manchester City · Premier League1–4

8 Oct 2022Manchester City — Southampton · Premier League4–0

22 Jan 2022Southampton — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

18 Sept 2021Manchester City — Southampton · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Southampton in 0 · 2 too close

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/90.67 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/92.11 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/91.19 xG/match

1 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/92.24 xG/match

19.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/910.6 shots/match

7.11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 9/918 shots/match

7.11 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/93.56 shots/match

2.89 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/96.22 shots/match

64.6%●Possessionseason · 9/954.4%

9.78 corners/match●Cornersseason · 9/94.67 corners/match

2.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/97.67 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

6.67 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/90%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/956%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Southampton72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City95.8

Southampton10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5

Southampton14.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City82.5

Southampton2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City7.5

Southampton47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5

Southampton27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City75

Southampton25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City9 matchesSouthampton9 matches

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.67 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.11 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.19 xG/match

19.9 shots/match▲Shots9/910.6 shots/match

7.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.56 shots/match

64.6%●Possession9/954.4%

9.78 corners/match●Corners9/94.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

6.67 fouls/matchFouls9/911.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City5 matchesSouthampton5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

2.44 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.96 xG/match

21.4 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match

7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

64.2%●Possession5/557%

10 corners/match●Corners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

6.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples9 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4