Premier League · 2024Sat, 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Southampton

LLDLL

2–3Full-time recap

Leicester City

LDDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Southampton	Leicester City
Shots	14 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.15 xG/match	3.21 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	10 corners/match●	6 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Southampton: 14 shots, 7 on target, 2.11 xG. Leicester City: 18 shots, 4 on target, 3.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Southampton 2.11 xG · Leicester City 3.31 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Southampton's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.75 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Southampton have a visible home split

weak

Southampton's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Southampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.9%●PossessionSouthampton · Leicester City44.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Southampton	Leicester City	Baseline
Possession	55.9%	44.1%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Southampton

0Draws

3Leicester City

23 Apr 2024Leicester City — Southampton · Championship5–0

15 Sept 2023Southampton — Leicester City · Championship1–4

4 Mar 2023Southampton — Leicester City · Premier League1–0

20 Aug 2022Leicester City — Southampton · Premier League1–2

22 May 2022Leicester City — Southampton · Premier League4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Southampton favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 4 · 3 too close

0.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.5 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.75 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.04 xG/match

2.16 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/82.13 xG/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/89.5 shots/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/818.5 shots/match

3.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.13 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/86.5 shots/match

55.9%●Possessionseason · 8/844.1%

5.13 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/82.75 corners/match

7.13 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/88.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲13%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Southampton72.5

Leicester City17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Southampton16.7

Leicester City24.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Southampton12.5

Leicester City17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Southampton2.5

Leicester City7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Southampton57.5

Leicester City42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Southampton42.5

Leicester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Southampton35

Leicester City15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Southampton8 matchesLeicester City8 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.5 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.75 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.04 xG/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots8/89.5 shots/match

3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.13 shots/match

55.9%●Possession8/844.1%

5.13 corners/match●Corners8/82.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Southampton4 matchesLeicester City4 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.5 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.34 xG/match

9 shots/matchShots4/4▲10.5 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/43.75 shots/match

51.3%●Possession4/440.5%

4 corners/match●Corners4/43.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4