PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Bournemouth 2–1 Manchester City · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bournemouth won 2–1.

Shots
1218
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.041.56
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bournemouth beat Manchester City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bournemouth – Manchester City): shots 12–18, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.04–1.56, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.1 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsBournemouth · Manchester City19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthManchester CityBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match19.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match7.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.7%PossessionBournemouth · Manchester City● 64.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthManchester CityBaseline
Possession43.7%64.5%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots18 shotsBournemouth 12 shots, Manchester City 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsBournemouth 6 shots, Manchester City 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.04 xG1.56 xGBournemouth 2.04 xG, Manchester City 1.56 xG
  • Possession36%64%Bournemouth 36%, Manchester City 64%
  • Corners3 corners10 cornersBournemouth 3 corners, Manchester City 10 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls6 foulsBournemouth 11 fouls, Manchester City 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Aké · Manchester City · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 82′ · 0.07 xG · goalBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 31′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDavid Brooks · Bournemouth · 78′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 46′ · 0.10 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 49′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 2′ · 0.16 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 80′ · 0.16 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 50′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 2′ · 0.28 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 9′ · 0.31 xG · goalEvanilson · Bournemouth · 64′ · 0.35 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedAdam Smith · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.63 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.12 xG. Manchester City: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 9′Evanilson · Bournemouth · 64′Joško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 2.12 xG · Manchester City 1.61 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Bournemouth
0Draws
4Manchester City
Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League0–1
Manchester City — Bournemouth · Premier League6–1
Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League1–4
Manchester City — Bournemouth · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bournemouth favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester City in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bournemouth10 matchesManchester City10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 2.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 1.1 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 2.01 xG/match
15.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 19.7 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 6.8 shots/match
43.7%Possession10/10● 64.5%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/10● 9.8 corners/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/106.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBournemouthManchester City
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headBournemouth — Manchester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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