PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthManchester City
Shots12 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.04 xG/match▲1.56 xG/match
Possession36%64%●
Corners3 corners/match10 corners/match●
Fouls11 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Aké · Manchester City · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateo Kovačić · Manchester City · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 82′ · 0.07 xG · goalBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 31′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDavid Brooks · Bournemouth · 78′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 46′ · 0.10 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 49′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 2′ · 0.16 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 80′ · 0.16 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 50′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 2′ · 0.28 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 9′ · 0.31 xG · goalEvanilson · Bournemouth · 64′ · 0.35 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedAdam Smith · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.63 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.12 xG. Manchester City: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 9′Evanilson · Bournemouth · 64′Joško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 2.12 xG · Manchester City 1.61 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.1 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Manchester City19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthManchester CityBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match19.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match7.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.7%PossessionBournemouth · Manchester City●64.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthManchester CityBaseline
Possession43.7%64.5%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bournemouth
0Draws
4Manchester City
Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League0–1
Manchester City — Bournemouth · Premier League6–1
Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League1–4
Manchester City — Bournemouth · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 11 · 2 too close

1.3 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/10▲2.01 xG/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.11 xG/match
15.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲19.7 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/10▲7.6 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲6.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.2 shots/match
43.7%Possessionseason · 10/10●64.5%
6.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/10●9.8 corners/match
5.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲2.6 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/106.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲20%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth17.5
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth59.2
Manchester City95.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth47.5
Manchester City91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth92.5
Manchester City82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5
Manchester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth81.9
Manchester City75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth10 matchesManchester City10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.01 xG/match
15.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.7 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.8 shots/match
43.7%Possession10/10●64.5%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/10●9.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/106.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth5 matchesManchester City5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.57 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲18 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
39.4%Possession5/5●64.8%
6 corners/matchCorners5/5●9.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.6 fouls/matchFouls5/56.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this