Premier League · 2024Sun, 15 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

WWDLD

1–3Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

LDDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Crystal Palace
Shots	17 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1 xG/match	2.31 xG/match▲
Possession	65%●	35%
Corners	8 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.06 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.7%●PossessionBrighton & Hove Albion · Crystal Palace43.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Possession	53.7%	43.5%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brighton & Hove Albion

3Draws

0Crystal Palace

3 Feb 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–1

21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

15 Mar 2023Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

11 Feb 2023Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

14 Jan 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 2 · 8 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.06 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.31 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 16/161.39 xG/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.41 xG/match

14.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1614.1 shots/match

12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1612.7 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/164.69 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/164.31 shots/match

53.7%●Possessionseason · 16/1643.5%

5.38 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/165.13 corners/match

5.06 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%

94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1669%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

Crystal Palace17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion61.7

Crystal Palace39.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion50

Crystal Palace53.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5

Crystal Palace87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

Crystal Palace22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

Crystal Palace42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion55.6

Crystal Palace41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion16 matchesCrystal Palace16 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.06 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.31 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals16/161.39 xG/match

14.6 shots/matchShots16/1614.1 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target16/164.69 shots/match

53.7%●Possession16/1643.5%

5.38 corners/match●Corners16/165.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion8 matchesCrystal Palace8 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.38 goals/match

1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.42 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots8/814.8 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.25 shots/match

54.5%●Possession8/844.4%

6.25 corners/match●Corners8/85.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls8/812.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4