Premier League · 2024Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

DDWDW

1–5Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Arsenal
Shots	15 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.59 xG/match	2.87 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Crystal Palace: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.62 xG. Arsenal: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 1.62 xG · Arsenal 2.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.06 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.2 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.4%PossessionCrystal Palace · Arsenal●54.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Crystal Palace	Arsenal	Baseline
Possession	43.4%	54.8%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Crystal Palace

0Draws

4Arsenal

20 Jan 2024Arsenal — Crystal Palace · Premier League5–0

21 Aug 2023Crystal Palace — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

19 Mar 2023Arsenal — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–1

5 Aug 2022Crystal Palace — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

4 Apr 2022Crystal Palace — Arsenal · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 3 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲2 goals/match

1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲0.94 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲1.79 xG/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/17▲0.94 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/1714.1 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲11.4 shots/match

4.76 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.24 shots/match

4.41 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.59 shots/match

43.4%Possessionseason · 17/17●54.8%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●6.59 corners/match

6.12 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲3.24 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲35%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace17.5

Arsenal77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace42.5

Arsenal71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace44.2

Arsenal89.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace87.5

Arsenal32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace22.5

Arsenal62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace42.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace43.8

Arsenal69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace17 matchesArsenal17 matches

1.06 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲2 goals/match

1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲0.94 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.79 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots17/1714.1 shots/match

4.76 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.24 shots/match

43.4%Possession17/17●54.8%

5 corners/matchCorners17/17●6.59 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace9 matchesArsenal9 matches

0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.89 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.11 goals/match

1.39 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.56 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots9/910.2 shots/match

4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.67 shots/match

42.6%Possession9/9●52.2%

4.56 corners/matchCorners9/94.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.44 fouls/matchFouls9/911.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4