PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Manchester City 1–2 Manchester United · Premier League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Manchester United won 1–2.

Shots
1010
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.952.08
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Manchester United beat Manchester City 2–1. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Manchester United): shots 10–10, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.95–2.08, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.6 shots/match ▲ShotsManchester City · Manchester United13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match13 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against9.19 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.9% ●PossessionManchester City · Manchester United53.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityManchester UnitedBaseline
Possession62.9%53.8%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots10 shotsManchester City 10 shots, Manchester United 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsManchester City 3 shots, Manchester United 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.95 xG2.08 xGManchester City 0.95 xG, Manchester United 2.08 xG
  • Possession52%48%Manchester City 52%, Manchester United 48%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersManchester City 8 corners, Manchester United 2 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls14 foulsManchester City 5 fouls, Manchester United 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 43′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedManuel Ugarte · Manchester United · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLisandro Martínez · Manchester United · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmad Diallo · Manchester United · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthijs de Ligt · Manchester United · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmad Diallo · Manchester United · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAmad Diallo · Manchester United · 62′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKobbie Mainoo · Manchester United · 84′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.08 xG · goalPhil Foden · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 76′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 74′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedRúben Dias · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedAmad Diallo · Manchester United · 90′ · 0.57 xG · goalBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 88′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG. Manchester United: 10 shots, 3 on target, 2.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Joško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 36′Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 88′Amad Diallo · Manchester United · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 0.98 xG · Manchester United 2.14 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Manchester City
0Draws
1Manchester United
Manchester City — Manchester United · Premier League3–1
Manchester United — Manchester City · Premier League0–3
Manchester United — Manchester City · Premier League2–1
Manchester City — Manchester United · Premier League6–3
Manchester City — Manchester United · Premier League4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Manchester United in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City16 matchesManchester United16 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.31 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.88 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.46 xG/match
17.6 shots/match ▲Shots16/1613 shots/match
5.94 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164.88 shots/match
62.9% ●Possession16/1653.8%
8.69 corners/match ●Corners16/164.56 corners/match
7.81 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Dec 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityManchester United
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headManchester City — Manchester United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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