Premier League · 2024Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester United

DWLLW

0–3Full-time recap

Bournemouth

LWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester United	Bournemouth
Shots	23 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.28 xG/match▲	1.63 xG/match
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	13 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester United: 23 shots, 7 on target, 2.34 xG. Bournemouth: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 2.34 xG · Bournemouth 1.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.59 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.2%●PossessionManchester United · Bournemouth44.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester United	Bournemouth	Baseline
Possession	54.2%	44.9%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester United

1Draws

1Bournemouth

13 Apr 2024Bournemouth — Manchester United · Premier League2–2

9 Dec 2023Manchester United — Bournemouth · Premier League0–3

20 May 2023Bournemouth — Manchester United · Premier League0–1

3 Jan 2023Manchester United — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 6 · 3 too close

1.24 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.59 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/171.24 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲2.03 xG/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.33 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲16.5 shots/match

11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1713.5 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.47 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/175.12 shots/match

54.2%●Possessionseason · 17/1744.9%

5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●6.53 corners/match

4.65 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175.59 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1713.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1718%

65%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United72.5

Bournemouth22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United45.8

Bournemouth76.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United76.7

Bournemouth46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United27.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United27.5

Bournemouth92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United42.5

Bournemouth82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United45.6

Bournemouth86.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United17 matchesBournemouth17 matches

1.24 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.59 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.24 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲2.03 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots17/17▲16.5 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.47 shots/match

54.2%●Possession17/1744.9%

5.06 corners/matchCorners17/17●6.53 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United9 matchesBournemouth9 matches

1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.78 goals/match

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.56 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.99 xG/match

14.6 shots/matchShots9/915.2 shots/match

5.22 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.89 shots/match

53.9%●Possession9/947.2%

5.67 corners/matchCorners9/9●6.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls9/912.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.75 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4