PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

LDWDD
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFulhamSouthampton
Shots15 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals0.88 xG/match▲0.26 xG/match
Possession57%●43%
Corners6 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alex Iwobi · Fulham · 3′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Wilson · Fulham · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCameron Archer · Southampton · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYukinari Sugawara · Southampton · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Cairney · Fulham · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vinícius · Fulham · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdam Armstrong · Southampton · 56′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMateus Fernandes · Southampton · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdama Traoré · Fulham · 86′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdam Armstrong · Southampton · 6′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 63′ · 0.14 xG · on targetHarry Wilson · Fulham · 67′ · 0.16 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fulham: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.87 xG. Southampton: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 0.87 xG · Southampton 0.27 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Southampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.65 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsFulham · Southampton9.06 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFulhamSouthamptonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match9.06 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match18.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fulham
0Draws
0Southampton
Southampton — Fulham · Premier League0–2
Fulham — Southampton · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Southampton in 0 · 2 too close

1.41 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/170.65 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/172.12 goals/match
1.33 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 17/171.02 xG/match
1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/172.29 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/179.06 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1718.4 shots/match
4.76 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/172.88 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/176.65 shots/match
51.2%Possessionseason · 17/17●52.6%
5.76 corners/match●Cornersseason · 17/174.47 corners/match
5.06 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/177.35 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1712%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1753%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham57.5
Southampton62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham45
Southampton2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham71.7
Southampton5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham47.5
Southampton2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham22.5
Southampton65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham62.5
Southampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham44.4
Southampton21.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham17 matchesSouthampton17 matches
1.41 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.65 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172.12 goals/match
1.33 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.02 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots17/179.06 shots/match
4.76 shots/match▲Shots on target17/172.88 shots/match
51.2%Possession17/17●52.6%
5.76 corners/match●Corners17/174.47 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham9 matchesSouthampton9 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.44 goals/match
1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.78 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots9/99.67 shots/match
5.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.22 shots/match
51.2%Possession9/9●55.6%
5.67 corners/match●Corners9/95.22 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/912.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFulhamSouthampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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