PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WWWWD
1–2Full-time recap

Fulham

DWDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaFulham
Shots12 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target8 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Expected goals1.12 xG/match1.78 xG/match▲
Possession47%53%●
Corners3 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Castagne · Fulham · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 15′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHarry Wilson · Fulham · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 22′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 60′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 77′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 49′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 67′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 16′ · 0.07 xG · goalCole Palmer · Chelsea · 20′ · 0.11 xG · on targetCalvin Bassey · Fulham · 26′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 68′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 35′ · 0.17 xG · on targetAntonee Robinson · Fulham · 62′ · 0.22 xG · on targetJadon Sancho · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.22 xG · on targetChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.28 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 90′ · 0.40 xG · goalHarry Wilson · Fulham · 82′ · 0.65 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 12 shots, 8 on target, 1.14 xG. Fulham: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.82 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 16′Harry Wilson · Fulham · 82′Rodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.14 xG · Fulham 1.82 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Chelsea
1Draws
1Fulham
Chelsea — Fulham · Premier League1–0
Fulham — Chelsea · Premier League0–2
Chelsea — Fulham · Premier League0–0
Fulham — Chelsea · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 2 · 4 too close

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.44 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.28 goals/match
2.06 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.36 xG/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.21 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1813.6 shots/match
11.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1811.7 shots/match
6.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.89 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲4.11 shots/match
57.2%●Possessionseason · 18/1851.3%
6.06 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/185.5 corners/match
3.61 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/184.94 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1817%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1889%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea87.5
Fulham51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea65.8
Fulham72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea57.5
Fulham47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea87.5
Fulham22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea67.5
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea82.5
Fulham47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea18 matchesFulham18 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.44 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.28 goals/match
2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.36 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.6 shots/match
6.28 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.89 shots/match
57.2%●Possession18/1851.3%
6.06 corners/match●Corners18/185.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea9 matchesFulham9 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.11 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.44 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots9/912.8 shots/match
6.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.22 shots/match
54.4%●Possession9/951.3%
5.78 corners/match●Corners9/95.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/911.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.04 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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