Premier League · 2024Tue, 14 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

LLDLW

2–2Full-time recap

Manchester City

LLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Manchester City
Shots	18 shots/match	21 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.58 xG/match▲	2.2 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	4 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brentford: 18 shots, 6 on target, 2.60 xG. Manchester City: 21 shots, 8 on target, 2.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 2.60 xG · Manchester City 2.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Brentford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Manchester City17.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Brentford	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	17.3 shots/match	13.9 shots/match
Shots against	17.9 shots/match	10.1 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Brentford have a visible home split

moderate

Brentford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.9 shots/match	11 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.9 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.9 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brentford

0Draws

3Manchester City

14 Sept 2024Manchester City — Brentford · Premier League2–1

20 Feb 2024Manchester City — Brentford · Premier League1–0

5 Feb 2024Brentford — Manchester City · Premier League1–3

28 May 2023Brentford — Manchester City · Premier League1–0

12 Nov 2022Manchester City — Brentford · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 10 · 2 too close

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.81 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.38 goals/match

1.66 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲1.84 xG/match

1.66 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.5 xG/match

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲17.3 shots/match

17.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10.1 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲6 shots/match

6.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.9 shots/match

47.8%Possessionseason · 21/21●61.2%

4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●7.95 corners/match

6.62 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲3.1 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.76 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/217.38 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲19%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford37.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford54.2

Manchester City85.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford12.5

Manchester City80.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford17.5

Manchester City67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford7.5

Manchester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford32.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford31.2

Manchester City71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford21 matchesManchester City21 matches

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.81 goals/match

1.76 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.38 goals/match

1.66 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲1.84 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots21/21▲17.3 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲6 shots/match

47.8%Possession21/21●61.2%

4.43 corners/matchCorners21/21●7.95 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.76 fouls/matchFouls21/217.38 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford11 matchesManchester City11 matches

2.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.55 goals/match

1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.36 goals/match

1.98 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.53 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲15.6 shots/match

6.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/115.55 shots/match

51.3%Possession11/11●60.5%

5.27 corners/matchCorners11/11●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.36 fouls/matchFouls11/117.09 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.2 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 14 Jan 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4