Premier League · 2024Tue, 14 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WDLLD

2–2Full-time recap

Bournemouth

DWDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Bournemouth
Shots	26 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.5 xG/match▲	1.18 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	9 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 26 shots, 10 on target, 2.60 xG. Bournemouth: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.22 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.60 xG · Bournemouth 1.22 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.95 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.95 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.24 corners/matchCornersChelsea · Bournemouth●6.43 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Bournemouth	Baseline
Corners	6.24 corners/match	6.43 corners/match	5.05 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.3%●PossessionChelsea · Bournemouth45.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Bournemouth	Baseline
Possession	58.3%	45.9%	50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Chelsea

1Draws

0Bournemouth

14 Sept 2024Bournemouth — Chelsea · Premier League0–1

19 May 2024Chelsea — Bournemouth · Premier League2–1

17 Sept 2023Bournemouth — Chelsea · Premier League0–0

6 May 2023Bournemouth — Chelsea · Premier League1–3

27 Dec 2022Chelsea — Bournemouth · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 2 · 5 too close

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.52 goals/match

1.24 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/211.19 goals/match

2.04 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/211.95 xG/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.31 xG/match

16.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2116.2 shots/match

11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113.6 shots/match

6.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/215.57 shots/match

4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/215.1 shots/match

58.3%●Possessionseason · 21/2145.9%

6.24 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●6.43 corners/match

3.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.24 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2113.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲24%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea92.5

Bournemouth27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea89.2

Bournemouth71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea64.2

Bournemouth47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea57.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea77.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea67.5

Bournemouth77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea81.2

Bournemouth83.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea21 matchesBournemouth21 matches

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.52 goals/match

1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed21/211.19 goals/match

2.04 xG/matchExpected goals21/211.95 xG/match

16.2 shots/matchShots21/2116.2 shots/match

6.14 shots/match▲Shots on target21/215.57 shots/match

58.3%●Possession21/2145.9%

6.24 corners/matchCorners21/21●6.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls21/2113.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea10 matchesBournemouth11 matches

1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲1.82 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.64 goals/match

2.07 xG/match▲Expected goals10/111.92 xG/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1114.5 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/115.09 shots/match

54.7%●Possession10/1146.9%

6.1 corners/match●Corners10/116.09 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1112.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 14 Jan 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4