Premier League · 2024Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

WWWWW

1–4Full-time recap

Bournemouth

WDDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Bournemouth
Shots	8 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.47 xG/match	2.08 xG/match▲
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	7 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 13 shots, 5 on target, 0.84 xG. Bournemouth: 19 shots, 10 on target, 2.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 0.84 xG · Bournemouth 2.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United, Bournemouth. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United, Bournemouth.

2.71 days▲Rest daysNewcastle United · Bournemouth3.71 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Newcastle United	Bournemouth	Baseline
Rest days	2.71 days	3.71 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.73 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.82 corners/matchCornersNewcastle United · Bournemouth●6.36 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle United	Bournemouth	Baseline
Corners	5.82 corners/match	6.36 corners/match	5.09 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle United

4Draws

1Bournemouth

25 Aug 2024Bournemouth — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1

17 Feb 2024Newcastle United — Bournemouth · Premier League2–2

11 Nov 2023Bournemouth — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

11 Feb 2023Bournemouth — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1

17 Sept 2022Newcastle United — Bournemouth · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 3 · 6 too close

1.73 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.64 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/221.18 goals/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/22▲1.96 xG/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/221.27 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲16.1 shots/match

13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/2213.3 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲5.64 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/225 shots/match

51.1%●Possessionseason · 22/2245.8%

5.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/22●6.36 corners/match

5.32 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/225.32 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2213.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2223%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2282%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United52.5

Bournemouth22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United55.8

Bournemouth75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United58.3

Bournemouth50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United52.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United12.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Bournemouth72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United43.8

Bournemouth83.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United22 matchesBournemouth22 matches

1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.64 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.18 goals/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲1.96 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots22/22▲16.1 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲5.64 shots/match

51.1%●Possession22/2245.8%

5.82 corners/matchCorners22/22●6.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United11 matchesBournemouth12 matches

1.73 goals/matchGoals scored11/12▲2 goals/match

1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.58 goals/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goals11/12▲1.93 xG/match

14.7 shots/matchShots11/1214.5 shots/match

4.82 shots/matchShots on target11/12▲5.25 shots/match

47.5%●Possession11/1246.7%

6 corners/matchCorners11/126 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1213.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.71 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4