Premier League · 2024Wed, 15 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

WWWWW

3–0Full-time recap

Wolverhampton

LWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Wolverhampton
Shots	17 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.11 xG/match▲	1.62 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	4 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.11 xG. Wolverhampton: 13 shots, 7 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.11 xG · Wolverhampton 1.64 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.76 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.76 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Newcastle United

2Draws

0Wolverhampton

15 Sept 2024Wolverhampton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2

2 Mar 2024Newcastle United — Wolverhampton · Premier League3–0

28 Oct 2023Wolverhampton — Newcastle United · Premier League2–2

12 Mar 2023Newcastle United — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–1

28 Aug 2022Wolverhampton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 0 · 3 too close

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.48 goals/match

1.05 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/212.29 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/211.09 xG/match

1.2 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.68 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2110.9 shots/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2114 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/214.38 shots/match

4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/215.29 shots/match

50.9%●Possessionseason · 21/2147.4%

5.76 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/213.24 corners/match

5.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/216.9 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2114%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United52.5

Wolverhampton37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United58.3

Wolverhampton31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United61.7

Wolverhampton19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United62.5

Wolverhampton12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United12.5

Wolverhampton92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5

Wolverhampton2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United45.6

Wolverhampton36.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United21 matchesWolverhampton21 matches

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.48 goals/match

1.05 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/212.29 goals/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals21/211.09 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots21/2110.9 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on target21/214.38 shots/match

50.9%●Possession21/2147.4%

5.76 corners/match●Corners21/213.24 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United10 matchesWolverhampton11 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/111.55 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/112.27 goals/match

1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals10/111.01 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1111.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/114.45 shots/match

46.7%Possession10/11●47.9%

5.9 corners/match●Corners10/113 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1113.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.98 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 15 Jan 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4