Premier League · 2024Wed, 15 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

DDDLL

0–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

LWLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Everton	Aston Villa
Shots	10 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.14 xG/match	1.21 xG/match▲
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	8 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Everton: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.14 xG. Aston Villa: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 1.14 xG · Aston Villa 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.2 goals/match	0.75 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Aston Villa12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	11.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match
Shots against	13.2 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Everton

1Draws

4Aston Villa

14 Sept 2024Aston Villa — Everton · Premier League3–2

14 Jan 2024Everton — Aston Villa · Premier League0–0

20 Aug 2023Aston Villa — Everton · Premier League4–0

25 Feb 2023Everton — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

13 Aug 2022Aston Villa — Everton · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 9 · 2 too close

0.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/21▲1.48 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/211.52 goals/match

0.97 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/21▲1.56 xG/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 20/21▲1.23 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/21▲12.8 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/21▲11.6 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/21▲4.19 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/21▲4.14 shots/match

40.3%Possessionseason · 20/21●50.5%

4.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/21●6.52 corners/match

5.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/21▲4.19 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2111.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2114%

40%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/21▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton7.5

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton17.5

Aston Villa35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton52.5

Aston Villa59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton67.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton67.5

Aston Villa50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton12.5

Aston Villa82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton31.2

Aston Villa48.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton20 matchesAston Villa21 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored20/21▲1.48 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/211.52 goals/match

0.97 xG/matchExpected goals20/21▲1.56 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots20/21▲12.8 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target20/21▲4.19 shots/match

40.3%Possession20/21●50.5%

4.25 corners/matchCorners20/21●6.52 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls20/2111.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton10 matchesAston Villa10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.25 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match

43.9%Possession10/10●45.4%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/10●4.9 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/111.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 15 Jan 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4