Premier League · 2024Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWWDW

2–2Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Aston Villa
Shots	18 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.33 xG/match▲	1.04 xG/match
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	10 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.33 xG. Aston Villa: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.02 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.33 xG · Aston Villa 1.02 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal, Aston Villa. A second useful context is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal, Aston Villa.

2.9 days▲Rest daysArsenal · Aston Villa2.92 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Arsenal	Aston Villa	Baseline
Rest days	2.9 days	2.92 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Arsenal have a visible home split

strong

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.5 shots/match	14 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.59 corners/match●CornersArsenal · Aston Villa6.27 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Aston Villa	Baseline
Corners	6.59 corners/match	6.27 corners/match	5.09 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Arsenal

0Draws

2Aston Villa

24 Aug 2024Aston Villa — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

14 Apr 2024Arsenal — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

9 Dec 2023Aston Villa — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

18 Feb 2023Aston Villa — Arsenal · Premier League2–4

31 Aug 2022Arsenal — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 0 · 2 too close

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.5 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.55 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 22/221.54 xG/match

0.9 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 22/221.24 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2212.5 shots/match

10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2211.9 shots/match

5.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224.18 shots/match

3.32 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/224.23 shots/match

55.6%●Possessionseason · 22/2249.8%

6.59 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/226.27 corners/match

3.05 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/224.45 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2211.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2214%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2277%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.5

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal75.8

Aston Villa35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal90.8

Aston Villa53.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal27.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal52.5

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal82.5

Aston Villa72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal68.8

Aston Villa50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal22 matchesAston Villa22 matches

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.5 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.55 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals22/221.54 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shots22/2212.5 shots/match

5.09 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224.18 shots/match

55.6%●Possession22/2249.8%

6.59 corners/match●Corners22/226.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal11 matchesAston Villa11 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.27 goals/match

0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.91 goals/match

1.9 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.23 xG/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.1 shots/match

6.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113 shots/match

58.9%●Possession11/1144.4%

8.73 corners/match●Corners11/114.55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4