Premier League · 2024Wed, 15 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

DWWWD

2–1Full-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

WLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Tottenham Hotspur
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.45 xG/match▲	0.78 xG/match
Possession	53%●	47%
Corners	10 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Tottenham Hotspur's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.05 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	2.05 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.43 corners/matchCornersArsenal · Tottenham Hotspur●7.76 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Tottenham Hotspur	Baseline
Corners	6.43 corners/match	7.76 corners/match	5.03 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Arsenal have a visible home split

strong

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.5 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Arsenal

1Draws

0Tottenham Hotspur

15 Sept 2024Tottenham Hotspur — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

28 Apr 2024Tottenham Hotspur — Arsenal · Premier League2–3

24 Sept 2023Arsenal — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–2

15 Jan 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

1 Oct 2022Arsenal — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Tottenham Hotspur in 2 · 4 too close

1.95 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/212.05 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.52 goals/match

1.74 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/211.78 xG/match

0.89 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.7 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲14.6 shots/match

10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2112.5 shots/match

5.05 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲5.48 shots/match

3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.43 shots/match

55.1%Possessionseason · 21/21●57.5%

6.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●7.76 corners/match

3.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.76 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2119%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.5

Tottenham Hotspur82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal68.3

Tottenham Hotspur80.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal92.5

Tottenham Hotspur47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal32.5

Tottenham Hotspur42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal62.5

Tottenham Hotspur32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal75

Tottenham Hotspur92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal64.4

Tottenham Hotspur68.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal21 matchesTottenham Hotspur21 matches

1.95 goals/matchGoals scored21/212.05 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.52 goals/match

1.74 xG/matchExpected goals21/211.78 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots21/21▲14.6 shots/match

5.05 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲5.48 shots/match

55.1%Possession21/21●57.5%

6.43 corners/matchCorners21/21●7.76 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls21/2111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal10 matchesTottenham Hotspur10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match

0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.66 xG/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.5 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.5 shots/match

58.2%Possession10/10●60.4%

8.6 corners/match●Corners10/107.1 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/111.3 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 16 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4