Premier League · 2024Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Ipswich Town

WDLLL

1–2Full-time recap

Southampton

LLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Ipswich Town	Southampton
Shots	15 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.55 xG/match▲	1.01 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	1 corners/match	2 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Ipswich Town: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.89 xG. Southampton: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 1.89 xG · Southampton 0.94 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.75 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ipswich Town have a visible home split

moderate

Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.29 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	9.29 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Southampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.6%PossessionIpswich Town · Southampton●51.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Ipswich Town	Southampton	Baseline
Possession	40.6%	51.9%	50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Ipswich Town

1Draws

0Southampton

21 Sept 2024Southampton — Ipswich Town · Premier League1–1

1 Apr 2024Ipswich Town — Southampton · Championship3–2

19 Sept 2023Southampton — Ipswich Town · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Southampton in 1 · 5 too close

0.92 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/240.75 goals/match

2.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/242.25 goals/match

0.93 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/24▲1.01 xG/match

2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/242.37 xG/match

9.29 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/249.63 shots/match

15 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2418.2 shots/match

3.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.17 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/246.88 shots/match

40.6%Possessionseason · 24/24●51.9%

4.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●4.33 corners/match

6.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/246.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2412.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/248%

63%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2458%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town12.5

Southampton57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town8.3

Southampton7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town19.2

Southampton4.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town17.5

Southampton2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town72.5

Southampton87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town12.5

Southampton22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town25.6

Southampton32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town24 matchesSouthampton24 matches

0.92 goals/match▲Goals scored24/240.75 goals/match

2.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/242.25 goals/match

0.93 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲1.01 xG/match

9.29 shots/matchShots24/249.63 shots/match

3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.17 shots/match

40.6%Possession24/24●51.9%

4.04 corners/matchCorners24/24●4.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls24/2412.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town13 matchesSouthampton13 matches

0.69 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲0.77 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.85 goals/match

0.96 xG/match▲Expected goals13/130.88 xG/match

11.2 shots/match▲Shots13/139.69 shots/match

3.77 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.77 shots/match

43.6%Possession13/13●53.2%

4.23 corners/matchCorners13/13●5.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4