Premier League · 2024Mon, 3 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LDDWL

2–1Full-time recap

West Ham United

LLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	West Ham United
Shots	22 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.37 xG/match▲	1.16 xG/match
Possession	67%●	33%
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: West Ham United's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · West Ham United13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	West Ham United	Baseline
Shots	16.3 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	13.7 shots/match
Shots against	11.2 shots/match	16.6 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

West Ham United's recent record differs from the season

weak

West Ham United's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.8 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.2%●PossessionChelsea · West Ham United46.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	West Ham United	Baseline
Possession	58.2%	46.6%	50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Chelsea

1Draws

1West Ham United

21 Sept 2024West Ham United — Chelsea · Premier League0–3

5 May 2024Chelsea — West Ham United · Premier League5–0

20 Aug 2023West Ham United — Chelsea · Premier League3–1

11 Feb 2023West Ham United — Chelsea · Premier League1–1

3 Sept 2022Chelsea — West Ham United · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · West Ham United in 0 · 3 too close

1.96 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.21 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.92 goals/match

2.05 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/241.37 xG/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.71 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2413.7 shots/match

11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2416.6 shots/match

5.96 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.13 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.33 shots/match

58.2%●Possessionseason · 24/2446.6%

5.88 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/244.42 corners/match

3.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/245.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2417%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea92.5

West Ham United37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea84.2

West Ham United37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea57.5

West Ham United20.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea72.5

West Ham United77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea67.5

West Ham United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea67.5

West Ham United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea77.5

West Ham United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea24 matchesWest Ham United24 matches

1.96 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.21 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.92 goals/match

2.05 xG/match▲Expected goals24/241.37 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots24/2413.7 shots/match

5.96 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.13 shots/match

58.2%●Possession24/2446.6%

5.88 corners/match●Corners24/244.42 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea12 matchesWest Ham United12 matches

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.08 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.67 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.31 xG/match

18 shots/match▲Shots12/1215.5 shots/match

6.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.08 shots/match

56.4%●Possession12/1246.2%

5.67 corners/match●Corners12/124.08 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 4 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4