Premier League · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WDWWL

4–0Full-time recap

Newcastle United

WWLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Newcastle United
Shots	11 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.9 xG/match▲	0.48 xG/match
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	7 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 11 shots, 7 on target, 1.92 xG. Newcastle United: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.92 xG · Newcastle United 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.08 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.2 goals/match	2.08 goals/match	1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.4 corners/match●CornersManchester City · Newcastle United5.72 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Newcastle United	Baseline
Corners	7.4 corners/match	5.72 corners/match	5.06 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Newcastle United13.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Newcastle United	Baseline
Shots	16.5 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	9.8 shots/match	12.9 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester City

2Draws

0Newcastle United

28 Sept 2024Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League1–1

13 Jan 2024Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League2–3

19 Aug 2023Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

4 Mar 2023Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

21 Aug 2022Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 3 · 2 too close

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.68 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.32 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/251.67 xG/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.26 xG/match

16.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2513.5 shots/match

9.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2512.9 shots/match

6.08 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/254.52 shots/match

3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.64 shots/match

61%●Possessionseason · 25/2550.3%

7.4 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/255.72 corners/match

3.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/255.36 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲32%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2584%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Newcastle United47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City92.5

Newcastle United50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City76.7

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City62.5

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Newcastle United12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City92.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70

Newcastle United41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City25 matchesNewcastle United25 matches

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.68 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.32 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals25/251.67 xG/match

16.5 shots/match▲Shots25/2513.5 shots/match

6.08 shots/match▲Shots on target25/254.52 shots/match

61%●Possession25/2550.3%

7.4 corners/match●Corners25/255.72 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.2 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City12 matchesNewcastle United13 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/131.69 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.46 goals/match

2.18 xG/match▲Expected goals12/131.69 xG/match

18.1 shots/match▲Shots12/1312.6 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/134.31 shots/match

61.6%●Possession12/1352.8%

8.25 corners/match●Corners12/135.69 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.33 fouls/matchFouls12/139.08 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4