PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Manchester City 4–0 Newcastle United · Premier League

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Manchester City won 4–0.

Shots
113
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
1.90.48
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Manchester City beat Newcastle United 4–0. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Newcastle United): shots 11–3, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 1.9–0.48, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.08 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.4 corners/match ●CornersManchester City · Newcastle United5.72 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityNewcastle UnitedBaseline
Corners7.4 corners/match5.72 corners/match5.06 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match ▲ShotsManchester City · Newcastle United13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityNewcastle UnitedBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against9.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots3 shotsManchester City 11 shots, Newcastle United 3 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotManchester City 7 shots, Newcastle United 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.9 xG0.48 xGManchester City 1.9 xG, Newcastle United 0.48 xG
  • Possession62%38%Manchester City 62%, Newcastle United 38%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersManchester City 7 corners, Newcastle United 4 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls13 foulsManchester City 5 fouls, Newcastle United 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOmar Marmoush · Manchester City · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 55′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSavinho · Manchester City · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOmar Marmoush · Manchester City · 24′ · 0.08 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 57′ · 0.10 xG · on targetOmar Marmoush · Manchester City · 33′ · 0.24 xG · goalOmar Marmoush · Manchester City · 19′ · 0.34 xG · goalSavinho · Manchester City · 28′ · 0.35 xG · on targetLewis Miley · Newcastle United · 60′ · 0.40 xG · on targetJames McAtee · Manchester City · 84′ · 0.57 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 11 shots, 7 on target, 1.92 xG. Newcastle United: 3 shots, 1 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Omar Marmoush · Manchester City · 19′Omar Marmoush · Manchester City · 24′Omar Marmoush · Manchester City · 33′James McAtee · Manchester City · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.92 xG · Newcastle United 0.47 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Manchester City
2Draws
0Newcastle United
Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League1–1
Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League2–3
Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0
Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0
Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 3

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City25 matchesNewcastle United25 matches
2.08 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.68 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.87 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/251.67 xG/match
16.5 shots/match ▲Shots25/2513.5 shots/match
6.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254.52 shots/match
61% ●Possession25/2550.3%
7.4 corners/match ●Corners25/255.72 corners/match
7.2 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityNewcastle United
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headManchester City — Newcastle United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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