PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Manchester City 2–3 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 2–3.

Shots
1120
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
1.63.42
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Manchester City 3–2. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Real Madrid): shots 11–20, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 1.6–3.42, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five shots average is below their season average.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match17.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.78 corners/match ●CornersManchester City · Real Madrid5.88 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityReal MadridBaseline
Corners7.78 corners/match5.88 corners/match4.88 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.7 shots/match ▲ShotsManchester City · Real Madrid15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityReal MadridBaseline
Shots17.7 shots/match15.9 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots20 shotsManchester City 11 shots, Real Madrid 20 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsManchester City 4 shots, Real Madrid 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.6 xG3.42 xGManchester City 1.6 xG, Real Madrid 3.42 xG
  • Possession54%46%Manchester City 54%, Real Madrid 46%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersManchester City 6 corners, Real Madrid 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls6 foulsManchester City 9 fouls, Real Madrid 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Phil Foden · Manchester City · 48′ · 0.01 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 35′ · 0.03 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 11′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSavinho · Manchester City · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 3′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedManuel Akanji · Manchester City · 37′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 66′ · 0.20 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 19′ · 0.21 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 55′ · 0.21 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.23 xG · goalFerland Mendy · Real Madrid · 12′ · 0.48 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 60′ · 0.51 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 80′ · 0.82 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.59 xG. Real Madrid: 20 shots, 8 on target, 3.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 19′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 80′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 60′Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 86′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.59 xG · Real Madrid 3.24 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Manchester City
3Draws
1Real Madrid
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League1–1
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League3–3
Manchester City — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League4–0
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League1–1
Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City9 matchesReal Madrid9 matches
2.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 2.56 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.56 goals/match
2.23 xG/matchExpected goals9/8▲ 2.57 xG/match
17.7 shots/match ▲Shots9/815.9 shots/match
7 shots/matchShots on target9/86.88 shots/match
65.2% ●Possession9/852.9%
7.78 corners/match ●Corners9/85.88 corners/match
7.78 fouls/matchFouls9/810.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 12 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityReal Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headManchester City — Real Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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