La Liga · 2024Sat, 8 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Real Madrid

WWWWL

1–1Full-time recap

Atlético Madrid

WWLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Atlético Madrid
Shots	23 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.69 xG/match▲	1.54 xG/match
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	6 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 23 shots, 9 on target, 1.72 xG. Atlético Madrid: 10 shots, 1 on target, 1.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.72 xG · Atlético Madrid 1.50 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.65 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible away split

strong

Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Atlético Madrid12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Atlético Madrid	Baseline
Shots	16.4 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	11.2 shots/match
Shots against	9.35 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Madrid

3Draws

1Atlético Madrid

29 Sept 2024Atlético Madrid — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1

4 Feb 2024Real Madrid — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–1

24 Sept 2023Atlético Madrid — Real Madrid · La Liga3–1

25 Feb 2023Real Madrid — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–1

18 Sept 2022Atlético Madrid — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 3 · 4 too close

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.65 goals/match

0.96 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.65 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.66 xG/match

0.96 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.89 xG/match

16.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2312.3 shots/match

9.35 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2310.5 shots/match

6.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/234.65 shots/match

2.78 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/233 shots/match

61.6%●Possessionseason · 23/2352.1%

5.7 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/235 corners/match

3.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/233.7 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.22 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2310.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

39%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲48%

91%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2387%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5

Atlético Madrid62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid92.5

Atlético Madrid75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid87.5

Atlético Madrid84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.5

Atlético Madrid57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid7.5

Atlético Madrid12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid87.5

Atlético Madrid60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid70

Atlético Madrid54.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid23 matchesAtlético Madrid23 matches

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.65 goals/match

0.96 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲0.65 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.66 xG/match

16.4 shots/match▲Shots23/2312.3 shots/match

6.57 shots/match▲Shots on target23/234.65 shots/match

61.6%●Possession23/2352.1%

5.7 corners/match●Corners23/235 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.22 fouls/matchFouls23/2310.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid11 matchesAtlético Madrid11 matches

2.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.36 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.73 goals/match

2.55 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.18 xG/match

17.7 shots/match▲Shots11/119 shots/match

7.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.27 shots/match

61.8%●Possession11/1147.5%

6.64 corners/match●Corners11/113.55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.18 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4