La Liga · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Atlético Madrid

WLDWD

1–1Full-time recap

Celta Vigo

LLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Celta Vigo
Shots	9 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.55 xG/match	1.75 xG/match▲
Possession	33%	67%●
Corners	2 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	8 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.55 xG. Celta Vigo: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 0.55 xG · Celta Vigo 1.81 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.63 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.8 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

5Atlético Madrid

0Draws

0Celta Vigo

26 Sept 2024Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1

12 May 2024Atlético Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–0

21 Oct 2023Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–3

12 Feb 2023Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1

10 Sept 2022Atlético Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atlético Madrid favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 0 · 4 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.46 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.58 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/241.39 xG/match

0.92 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.12 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2411.1 shots/match

10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/2410.7 shots/match

4.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.29 shots/match

3.04 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/243.92 shots/match

51.3%Possessionseason · 24/24●54%

4.88 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/243.54 corners/match

3.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/244.04 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2417%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2488%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlético Madrid62.5

Celta Vigo77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlético Madrid75.8

Celta Vigo64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlético Madrid84.2

Celta Vigo37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlético Madrid57.5

Celta Vigo27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid12.5

Celta Vigo37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid57.5

Celta Vigo12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlético Madrid53.8

Celta Vigo42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid24 matchesCelta Vigo24 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.46 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.58 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goals24/241.39 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots24/2411.1 shots/match

4.58 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.29 shots/match

51.3%Possession24/24●54%

4.88 corners/match●Corners24/243.54 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atlético Madrid13 matchesCelta Vigo12 matches

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored13/121.17 goals/match

0.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/122.08 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals13/121.34 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1211.7 shots/match

5.69 shots/match▲Shots on target13/123.67 shots/match

54.5%Possession13/12●56%

6 corners/match●Corners13/123.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1211.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.19 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

Atlético Madrid have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match