PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealValencia
Shots13 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.41 xG/match▲1.07 xG/match
Possession50%50%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls6 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pau Navarro · Villarreal · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuis Rioja · Valencia · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuis Rioja · Valencia · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosé Luis Gayà · Valencia · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIván Jaime · Valencia · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJavier Guerra · Valencia · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 32′ · 0.03 xG · goalDiego López · Valencia · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPepelu · Valencia · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJavier Guerra · Valencia · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYéremy Pino · Villarreal · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 72′ · 0.06 xG · on targetUmar Sadiq · Valencia · 84′ · 0.09 xG · goalRafa Mir · Valencia · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 23′ · 0.12 xG · on targetSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 85′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 36′ · 0.13 xG · on targetPepelu · Valencia · 60′ · 0.14 xG · on targetPape Gueye · Villarreal · 42′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedRafa Mir · Valencia · 84′ · 0.57 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.38 xG. Valencia: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Pape Gueye · Villarreal · 32′Umar Sadiq · Valencia · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 1.38 xG · Valencia 1.10 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible away split

moderate

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.58 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match9.58 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Valencia9.58 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealValenciaBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match9.58 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match10.8 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Villarreal
2Draws
1Valencia
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga1–1
Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga1–0
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga3–1
Valencia — Villarreal · La Liga1–1
Villarreal — Valencia · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Valencia in 3 · 2 too close

1.96 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.04 goals/match
1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.58 goals/match
1.8 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/241.08 xG/match
1.16 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.49 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/249.58 shots/match
12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲10.8 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.08 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲3.75 shots/match
48.3%●Possessionseason · 24/2446.7%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●5.42 corners/match
4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/244.92 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2412 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲21%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal47.5
Valencia37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal87.5
Valencia22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal34.2
Valencia42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal97.5
Valencia22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal22.5
Valencia42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal47.5
Valencia77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal61.2
Valencia38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal24 matchesValencia24 matches
1.96 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.04 goals/match
1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.58 goals/match
1.8 xG/match▲Expected goals24/241.08 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots24/249.58 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.08 shots/match
48.3%●Possession24/2446.7%
4.75 corners/matchCorners24/24●5.42 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls24/2412 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal12 matchesValencia12 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.58 goals/match
1.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals12/120.87 xG/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shots12/128 shots/match
5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target12/122.08 shots/match
48.1%●Possession12/1246.7%
4.75 corners/match●Corners12/124.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealValencia
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Villarreal vs Valencia — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath