PitchMath
La Liga · 2024

Rayo Vallecano 0–1 Villarreal · La Liga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Villarreal won 0–1.

Shots
1010
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.610.5
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Villarreal beat Rayo Vallecano 1–0. Recorded in this match (Rayo Vallecano – Villarreal): shots 10–10, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.61–0.5, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Villarreal14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoVillarrealBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match14.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots10 shotsRayo Vallecano 10 shots, Villarreal 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsRayo Vallecano 5 shots, Villarreal 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG0.5 xGRayo Vallecano 0.61 xG, Villarreal 0.5 xG
  • Possession51%49%Rayo Vallecano 51%, Villarreal 49%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersRayo Vallecano 3 corners, Villarreal 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls12 foulsRayo Vallecano 15 fouls, Villarreal 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 1′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRandy Nteka · Rayo Vallecano · 70′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAbdul Mumin · Rayo Vallecano · 75′ · 0.02 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYéremy Pino · Villarreal · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 5′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 34′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGerard Gumbau · Rayo Vallecano · 86′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSergi Guardiola · Rayo Vallecano · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Pedraza · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSergi Guardiola · Rayo Vallecano · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.14 xG · goalÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 61′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.64 xG. Villarreal: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 0.64 xG · Villarreal 0.55 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Rayo Vallecano
2Draws
1Villarreal
Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1
Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0
Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga1–1
Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga2–1
Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rayo Vallecano favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Villarreal in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano25 matchesVillarreal25 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.92 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.4 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.75 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 14.3 shots/match
3.84 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 4.8 shots/match
50% ●Possession25/2548.3%
5.04 corners/match ●Corners25/254.76 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRayo VallecanoVillarreal
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2024/25
Head-to-headRayo Vallecano — Villarreal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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