La Liga · 2024Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

DWWWL

0–1Full-time recap

Villarreal

WDWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Rayo Vallecano	Villarreal
Shots	10 shots/match	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	0.61 xG/match▲	0.5 xG/match
Possession	51%●	49%
Corners	3 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	15 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.64 xG. Villarreal: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 0.64 xG · Villarreal 0.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.08 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Villarreal14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Rayo Vallecano	Villarreal	Baseline
Shots	12.8 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	11.2 shots/match
Shots against	12.6 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.1 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Rayo Vallecano

2Draws

1Villarreal

18 Dec 2024Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1

28 Apr 2024Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0

24 Sept 2023Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga1–1

28 May 2023Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga2–1

30 Jan 2023Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 6 · 5 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.92 goals/match

1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.4 goals/match

1.21 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 25/25▲1.75 xG/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/251.13 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲14.3 shots/match

12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2512.2 shots/match

3.84 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲4.8 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/254.24 shots/match

50%●Possessionseason · 25/2548.3%

5.04 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/254.76 corners/match

4.84 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲4.44 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2512%

76%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano52.5

Villarreal42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano54.2

Villarreal87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano44.2

Villarreal35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano72.5

Villarreal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano87.5

Villarreal22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano67.5

Villarreal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano70

Villarreal62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano25 matchesVillarreal25 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.92 goals/match

1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.4 goals/match

1.21 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲1.75 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots25/25▲14.3 shots/match

3.84 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲4.8 shots/match

50%●Possession25/2548.3%

5.04 corners/match●Corners25/254.76 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano12 matchesVillarreal13 matches

1.42 goals/matchGoals scored12/13▲1.54 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed12/13▲1.23 goals/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals12/13▲1.5 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots12/1313.5 shots/match

5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target12/134.46 shots/match

52.6%●Possession12/1348.5%

4.83 corners/match●Corners12/134.77 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1311.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4