La Liga · 2024Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Valencia

WLWWD

0–3Full-time recap

Atlético Madrid

LDWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Valencia	Atlético Madrid
Shots	18 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	3 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.91 xG/match	1.28 xG/match▲
Possession	49%	51%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	18 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Valencia: 18 shots, 2 on target, 0.84 xG. Atlético Madrid: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 0.84 xG · Atlético Madrid 1.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.92 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.6 shots/match	9.92 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible away split

moderate

Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.17 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.17 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Valencia

0Draws

4Atlético Madrid

15 Sept 2024Atlético Madrid — Valencia · La Liga3–0

28 Jan 2024Atlético Madrid — Valencia · La Liga2–0

16 Sept 2023Valencia — Atlético Madrid · La Liga3–0

18 Mar 2023Atlético Madrid — Valencia · La Liga3–0

29 Aug 2022Valencia — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 10 · 3 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.68 goals/match

1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲0.64 goals/match

1.08 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 25/25▲1.6 xG/match

1.48 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/25▲0.92 xG/match

9.92 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲12.1 shots/match

10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2510.8 shots/match

3.04 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲4.52 shots/match

3.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲3 shots/match

46.8%Possessionseason · 25/25●51.3%

5.48 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/254.68 corners/match

4.72 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲3.96 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲48%

68%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia37.5

Atlético Madrid57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia22.5

Atlético Madrid74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia45.8

Atlético Madrid82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia27.5

Atlético Madrid57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia42.5

Atlético Madrid12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia77.5

Atlético Madrid47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia38.8

Atlético Madrid50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia25 matchesAtlético Madrid25 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.68 goals/match

1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲0.64 goals/match

1.08 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲1.6 xG/match

9.92 shots/matchShots25/25▲12.1 shots/match

3.04 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲4.52 shots/match

46.8%Possession25/25●51.3%

5.48 corners/match●Corners25/254.68 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia13 matchesAtlético Madrid12 matches

1.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/12▲1.5 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/12▲0.67 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals13/121.19 xG/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots13/129.17 shots/match

3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target13/123.25 shots/match

46.8%Possession13/12●47.8%

6.62 corners/match●Corners13/123.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1210.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4