La Liga · 2024Mon, 17 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Barcelona

LDWWW

1–0Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

WDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Barcelona	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	14 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.56 xG/match▲	0.97 xG/match
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Barcelona: 14 shots, 5 on target, 2.42 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 2.42 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Rayo Vallecano13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Shots	16.6 shots/match	13 shots/match	11.2 shots/match
Shots against	8.46 shots/match	12.7 shots/match	11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.4%●PossessionBarcelona · Rayo Vallecano49.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Possession	67.4%	49.9%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible away split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.8 shots/match	13 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Barcelona

2Draws

1Rayo Vallecano

27 Aug 2024Rayo Vallecano — Barcelona · La Liga1–2

19 May 2024Barcelona — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0

25 Nov 2023Rayo Vallecano — Barcelona · La Liga1–1

26 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano — Barcelona · La Liga2–1

13 Aug 2022Barcelona — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0 · 5 too close

2.71 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.13 goals/match

1.04 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/241.04 goals/match

2.5 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/241.24 xG/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/241.22 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2413 shots/match

8.46 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2412.7 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.79 shots/match

3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/244.17 shots/match

67.4%●Possessionseason · 24/2449.9%

6.42 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/245.13 corners/match

4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/244.83 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.04 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2414.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2425%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona97.5

Rayo Vallecano52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona95.8

Rayo Vallecano54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona80

Rayo Vallecano43.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona67.5

Rayo Vallecano77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona2.5

Rayo Vallecano87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona97.5

Rayo Vallecano67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona72.5

Rayo Vallecano70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Barcelona24 matchesRayo Vallecano24 matches

2.71 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.13 goals/match

1.04 goals/matchGoals allowed24/241.04 goals/match

2.5 xG/match▲Expected goals24/241.24 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shots24/2413 shots/match

6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.79 shots/match

67.4%●Possession24/2449.9%

6.42 corners/match●Corners24/245.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.04 fouls/matchFouls24/2414.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Barcelona11 matchesRayo Vallecano13 matches

2.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/130.77 goals/match

0.82 goals/matchGoals allowed11/13▲0.77 goals/match

2.71 xG/match▲Expected goals11/131.03 xG/match

18.1 shots/match▲Shots11/1310.8 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target11/132.62 shots/match

70.3%●Possession11/1347.5%

7.73 corners/match●Corners11/135.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.36 fouls/matchFouls11/1315.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 18 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4