PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 8 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLas PalmasVillarreal
Shots20 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals1.6 xG/match▲1.01 xG/match
Possession57%●43%
Corners6 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pape Gueye · Villarreal · 47′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMika Mármol · Las Palmas · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenito Ramírez · Las Palmas · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEnzo Loiodice · Las Palmas · 24′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOli McBurnie · Las Palmas · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Suárez · Las Palmas · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuanma Herzog · Las Palmas · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 46′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJavier Muñoz · Las Palmas · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSandro Ramírez · Las Palmas · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYéremy Pino · Villarreal · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYéremy Pino · Villarreal · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSandro Ramírez · Las Palmas · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJuanma Herzog · Las Palmas · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Park · Las Palmas · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 59′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 68′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOli McBurnie · Las Palmas · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedManuel Fuster · Las Palmas · 84′ · 0.14 xG · goalOli McBurnie · Las Palmas · 14′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 53′ · 0.20 xG · goalOli McBurnie · Las Palmas · 71′ · 0.29 xG · on targetAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.35 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Las Palmas: 20 shots, 4 on target, 1.43 xG. Villarreal: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Manuel Fuster · Las Palmas · 84′Alex Baena · Villarreal · 53′Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Las Palmas 1.43 xG · Villarreal 0.89 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Las Palmas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsLas Palmas · Villarreal14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLas PalmasVillarrealBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match14.6 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Las Palmas have a visible home split

moderate

Las Palmas's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Las Palmas
0Draws
1Villarreal
Villarreal — Las Palmas · La Liga3–1
Las Palmas — Villarreal · La Liga3–0
Villarreal — Las Palmas · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Las Palmas favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 10 · 2 too close

1.22 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.48 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 23/23▲1.82 xG/match
1.92 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.16 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲14.6 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲12.3 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲4.83 shots/match
4.78 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲4.26 shots/match
52.5%●Possessionseason · 23/2348.2%
3.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/23●4.78 corners/match
5.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.48 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/239%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Las Palmas67.5
Villarreal45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Las Palmas57.5
Villarreal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Las Palmas17.5
Villarreal30.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Las Palmas32.5
Villarreal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Las Palmas52.5
Villarreal32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Las Palmas27.5
Villarreal50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Las Palmas48.8
Villarreal64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Las Palmas23 matchesVillarreal23 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.48 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲1.82 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲14.6 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲4.83 shots/match
52.5%●Possession23/2348.2%
3.96 corners/matchCorners23/23●4.78 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Las Palmas12 matchesVillarreal12 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.58 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.33 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.58 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots12/1213.8 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target12/124.42 shots/match
55.5%●Possession12/1248.4%
4.58 corners/matchCorners12/12●4.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Feb 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLas PalmasVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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