PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Tue, 1 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WLDDW
2–1Full-time recap

Fulham

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalFulham
Shots17 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.31 xG/match▲0.81 xG/match
Possession52%●48%
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls2 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Saša Lukić · Fulham · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge Cuenca · Fulham · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 37′ · 0.04 xG · goalJakub Kiwior · Arsenal · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEthan Nwaneri · Arsenal · 21′ · 0.08 xG · on targetWilliam Saliba · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThomas Partey · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAdama Traoré · Fulham · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 51′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 52′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 90′ · 0.12 xG · goalDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 6′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 43′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRyan Sessegnon · Fulham · 88′ · 0.20 xG · on targetGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 54′ · 0.30 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 81′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 17 shots, 4 on target, 2.35 xG. Fulham: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mikel Merino · Arsenal · 37′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 73′Rodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 2.35 xG · Fulham 0.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.83 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match14 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Arsenal
2Draws
1Fulham
Fulham — Arsenal · Premier League1–1
Fulham — Arsenal · Premier League2–1
Arsenal — Fulham · Premier League2–2
Fulham — Arsenal · Premier League0–3
Arsenal — Fulham · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 0 · 4 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.47 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.33 goals/match
1.61 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/301.35 xG/match
0.86 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/301.19 xG/match
14 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/3013.5 shots/match
9.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3011.1 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/304.5 shots/match
3.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.07 shots/match
55.7%●Possessionseason · 30/3052.6%
6.47 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/305.33 corners/match
2.87 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/304.57 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3017%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3087%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.5
Fulham67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal70.8
Fulham48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal95.8
Fulham70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal37.5
Fulham47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal40
Fulham40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5
Fulham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal64.4
Fulham48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal30 matchesFulham30 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.47 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.33 goals/match
1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals30/301.35 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots30/3013.5 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target30/304.5 shots/match
55.7%●Possession30/3052.6%
6.47 corners/match●Corners30/305.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal15 matchesFulham15 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.47 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.27 goals/match
1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.44 xG/match
16.9 shots/match▲Shots15/1512.8 shots/match
5.87 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.87 shots/match
57%●Possession15/1551.1%
7.53 corners/match●Corners15/155 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1512 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

16.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 1 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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