Premier League · 2024Tue, 1 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLDWW

1–0Full-time recap

Manchester United

LDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United
Shots	8 shots/match	23 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.48 xG/match	1.63 xG/match▲
Possession	32%	68%●
Corners	3 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	5 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG. Manchester United: 23 shots, 6 on target, 1.63 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.47 xG · Manchester United 1.63 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.23 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.23 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester United have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.4%PossessionNottingham Forest · Manchester United●53.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United	Baseline
Possession	39.4%	53.1%	50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Nottingham Forest

0Draws

3Manchester United

7 Dec 2024Manchester United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–3

30 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest — Manchester United · Premier League2–1

26 Aug 2023Manchester United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–2

16 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Manchester United · Premier League0–2

27 Dec 2022Manchester United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 5 · 3 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.23 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.37 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/30▲1.36 xG/match

1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/301.54 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲13.5 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲11.4 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/304.63 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲4.13 shots/match

39.4%Possessionseason · 30/30●53.1%

4.23 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/30●5.13 corners/match

6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲4.73 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3010.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3027%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3063%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest2.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest46.7

Manchester United45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest54.2

Manchester United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest87.5

Manchester United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Manchester United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest22.5

Manchester United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest28.1

Manchester United47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest30 matchesManchester United30 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.23 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.37 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲1.36 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots30/30▲13.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target30/304.63 shots/match

39.4%Possession30/30●53.1%

4.23 corners/matchCorners30/30●5.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls30/3010.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest15 matchesManchester United15 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.07 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.07 goals/match

1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.19 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots15/1512.9 shots/match

4.53 shots/matchShots on target15/154.47 shots/match

41.9%Possession15/15●53.4%

4.27 corners/matchCorners15/15●5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

17.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 1 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4