Premier League · 2024Sat, 5 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

DWLWW

2–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest
Shots	17 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	3.03 xG/match▲	1.48 xG/match
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	4 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 17 shots, 8 on target, 3.02 xG. Nottingham Forest: 19 shots, 3 on target, 1.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 3.02 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.46 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest.

2.91 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Nottingham Forest3.9 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Rest days	2.91 days	3.9 days	—
Matches last 14 days	1 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.48 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible home split

moderate

Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.1 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

1Draws

2Nottingham Forest

14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League2–1

24 Feb 2024Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League4–2

5 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

8 Apr 2023Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

10 Oct 2022Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 4 · 5 too close

1.48 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲1.65 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.19 goals/match

1.51 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 31/311.28 xG/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.27 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/3112.5 shots/match

12.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3114 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/314.45 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/314.71 shots/match

51.3%●Possessionseason · 31/3139.6%

6.16 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/314.23 corners/match

4.35 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/316.42 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3110.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲42%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3184%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa57.5

Nottingham Forest5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa40

Nottingham Forest45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa54.2

Nottingham Forest47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa27.5

Nottingham Forest92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa47.5

Nottingham Forest17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa72.5

Nottingham Forest27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa48.1

Nottingham Forest30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa31 matchesNottingham Forest31 matches

1.48 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲1.65 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.19 goals/match

1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals31/311.28 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots31/3112.5 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on target31/314.45 shots/match

51.3%●Possession31/3139.6%

6.16 corners/match●Corners31/314.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls31/3110.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa16 matchesNottingham Forest16 matches

1.69 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.69 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.69 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.26 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots16/1612.7 shots/match

5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.38 shots/match

55.3%●Possession16/1637.6%

7.5 corners/match●Corners16/164.19 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Apr 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4