Premier League · 2024Wed, 2 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

WWWWD

0–3Full-time recap

Aston Villa

DDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Aston Villa
Shots	11 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.01 xG/match	1.2 xG/match▲
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	4 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.91 xG. Aston Villa: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 0.91 xG · Aston Villa 1.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.6 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.8 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton & Hove Albion

1Draws

3Aston Villa

30 Dec 2024Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–2

5 May 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

30 Sept 2023Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League6–1

28 May 2023Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1

13 Nov 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 1 · 6 too close

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301.47 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/301.5 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/301.46 xG/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/301.37 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3012.4 shots/match

11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3012.1 shots/match

4.77 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/304.2 shots/match

3.77 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.27 shots/match

52.1%●Possessionseason · 30/3051.2%

4.9 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/30●6.23 corners/match

5.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲4.37 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3017%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

Aston Villa57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5

Aston Villa36.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion66.7

Aston Villa51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

Aston Villa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion82.5

Aston Villa55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

Aston Villa49.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion30 matchesAston Villa30 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301.47 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.5 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goals30/301.46 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots30/3012.4 shots/match

4.77 shots/match▲Shots on target30/304.2 shots/match

52.1%●Possession30/3051.2%

4.9 corners/matchCorners30/30●6.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion15 matchesAston Villa15 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.27 goals/match

1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.8 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.13 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots15/159.8 shots/match

4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.13 shots/match

52.7%●Possession15/1546.9%

5.07 corners/match●Corners15/154.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

18.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/125.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4